A brief summary below of what transpired during this past week followed further below by what we can expect for next week based on historical analysis. Also, it was just reported that 9 banks failed this evening that spanked the underfunded FDIC for another $2.5 billion... http://tinyurl.com/yay4v5g

Regards - VHF

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Boo!

Vince Veneziani

October 30, 2009

An awful day for those who were Bullish.

An awful week, really.

After yesterday's seemingly amazing gains, all that was wiped out when the Dow tanked 2.53%, down 252 points. The S&P and NASDAQ didn't fare better, dropping 2.82% and 2.5%, respectively. For the week, the NASDAQ is down 5%.

As one can see via this lovely chart from Finviz.com, the S&P 500 is an absolute bloodbath.

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A few snippets from B.I.G. issued earlier today...

DOWN FRIDAYS

What an ugly day. Today marked the 142nd time since 1900 that the Dow went down at least 2% on a Friday (when the following Monday was not a holiday). On the following Monday, the Dow has averaged a decline of 0.31%, with positive returns 49% of the time. Since the bear market that started in October 2007, this has happened 6 other times (see table below). On the following Monday, the Dow has gone down 4 out of 6 times for an average decline of 0.73%. The last two times we've had a >2% decline on Friday, the following Monday has lost 2.42% and 2.63%. Let's hope Monday's trade is a little better than that!

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ITS THE FIRST OF THE MONTH

Next Monday marks the first trading day of November. Below we highlight the Dow's performance on the first trading day of November over the last 50 years. As shown, the average change on these days has been 0.27%, with gains 56% of the time since 1959. The last four starts to November, however, have been negative.

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BACK BELOW THE 50-DAY

After staging a nice rally yesterday, the S&P 500 is on the verge of giving up ALL of the gains. Look out below if the lows from Wednesday get taken out.