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Message: Very interesting COT change and pm developments

Very interesting COT change and pm developments

posted on Oct 23, 2009 09:31AM

The structure of the CRIMEX gold futures OI is changing. The OI is increasing which points to stubborn investor interest in the face of massive shorting by the Boyz. This is constructive in itself.Early reporting for Wed shows an increase of over 16,000 contracts with 60 % going into the Dec contract.

The options internals show a rise in put OI at higher strikes. An increase of 6,600 puts and an increase of only 1,000 calls. This is a welcome change in the face of the rapid rise in the price of gold where most recent activity has been in calls at and above $1,050. Recall the primary floor was $750 just last week with even the secondary floors all $850 and below. The new put action is spread across many prices with a new attraction point around $900 and spreading of contracts up to $1,000 is forming with OI in the Dec 09 through Jun 10. Very good for a rising gold price.

There are many signs that US investor demand for pms is on the rise. This includes an uptic in both gold and silver eagle sales, gold buffalos and anecdotal data comming from retail bullion dealers. This is accompanied by more rumors of slow deliveries of large gold and silver purchases.

The US $ is still meandering below its 50 day MA. The MA in an serious down-slope.The 10yr bill showing a little weakness in front of the upcomming offer.

All of this gold positive data is in the face of massive resistance by the Boyz. They are throwing every trick in their arsenal at gold now including the raid on pm shares yesterday.

I don't know what to make of the "news" that Russia is going to sell 45 tonnes of gold. I wonder if they are looking at JP Morgan offering to settle futures for cash with a 20% premium and saying Hey, I'll get you the physical for spot + 20% !!

Soooo, my current view of the PM prices is we are still looking at UP being the most likely direction even in light of the Boyz and their criminal activities.

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