ECU SILVER update - so cheap, it's embarrassing...

originally published October 6th, 2009

ECU Silver has performed miserably in the recent past, and in fact it has performed miserably for the past 3 years. While this can be attributed in part to the high number of shares in issue, we should recall that it had a high number of shares in issue before it took off in 2006. On its 5-year chart we can see that technically its recent poor performance can be put down to its needing to mark out a base pattern after last year's severe drop of sufficient duration to allow its 200-day moving average to drop down close to the price and flatten out, which has just been achieved. On this chart we can also see that the prolonged severe downtrend appears to have come to a conclusion at last at a zone of strong long-term support which dates back to the earlier Pan base in the stock that preceded its big runup on the announcement of major discoveries, and the amazing thing is that with regards to the stock price it is as if ECU has made no discoveries at all, whereas the reality is that ECU has continued to prove up additional reserves and has brought a high capacity mill into operation and is right now going into production. This means that the stock is now grossly undervalued, even taking into account the growth in the quantity of stock in issue over the past several years.

As we can see a base area appears to have developed in ECU this year that has taken the form of a Double Bottom which is now believed to be close to completion. This basing process has been accompanied by a bullish volume pattern that has driven up volume indicators. While the On-balance Volume line (not shown) is at a healthy level relative to price, being not far off its level at the time when the stock price peaked, The Accumulation-Distribution line has continued to soar, suggesting continued clandestine accumulation while the price has remained depressed. The strength of this line alone suggests imminent reversal to the upside. While the long-term downtrend shown is still a long way from being broken, it seems very unlikely that ECU will remain around current levels for long with the silver price soaring and we can therefore expect it to rise to challenge the downtrend line before much longer.

The shorter-term 1-year chart enables us to examine recent action in more detail. On this chart we can see that the price has been held in restraint for a long time by the steeply falling 200-day moving average, but that in recent weeks it has drawn very close to the price so that for the first time in well over 2 years we have an increasingly favorable price and moving average alignment, with the price and moving averages bunched closely together, a situation that frequently precedes an upside breakout, which here would quickly swing the averages into bullish alignment. On this chart we can also see in detail the recent bullish volume pattern, with high volume on rallies dying back on reactions.

In conclusion, ECU is thought to be at a very favorable entry point here at its current depressed price, especially given that gold is breaking out upside and silver looks set to soar as a result. With this favorable background the chances of ECU Silver breaking lower still would seem to be exceedingly remote. On the cotrary, it is considered much more likely that it will take off strongly higher soon. If you acted on the Email alert for Vista Gold, which included an immediate buy rec. for ECU Silver, you may already have zipped in and picked it up at a better price in the early trade, as it opened at C$0.53.

ECU Silver website

ECU Silver Mining Inc, ECU.TO, ECUXF on Other OTC, trading at C$0.58 and $0.5519 at 11.32 am EDT on 6th October 09.

Posted at 12.05 pm EDT on 6th October 09.