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Message: excerpt from tonight's MIDAS report

excerpt from tonight's MIDAS report

posted on Sep 23, 2009 06:21PM

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

No exuberance

As noted earlier, Dec gold’s up $10.60 close at $1,015.50 saw trading slow down drastically in the second 2/3rds of the floor session – less than 30,000 lots traded in 3 ½ hours. Japan still closed, but the NY night session is fairly busy with gold advancing again. Unlike on Tuesday, Eurogold is visibly more sluggish as the Euro firms.

Gold shares were, not surprisingly, cheerful, with the HUI and XAU closing up 2.45% and 2.31% respectively, having been a point higher at their best. Gold’s friends will be hoping the excitement surrounding HudBay Mineral’s Manitoba gold find will help revive the junior gold sector: decent gold finds have done that before.

MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus for gold added a point to 87% but the HGNSI and the GLD ETF saw no change at 38.5% and 1,101.73461 tonnes respectively.. (Gold's Bullish Consensus reached 88% last Tuesday when Dec gold closed at $1,006.30.)

Silver’s Bullish Consensus added a point to 69%, still below Sept 16th's high of 71%. Barclays remarked this morning that Chinese import statistics indicate that the country was a net importer of silver for the sixth month running: a momentous development, if true. China once played a similar role in silver to that which India has in gold.

Despite prodding, Reuters has not yet supplied a Vietnam gold price.

-END-

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

E700 the key?

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $2.52, PM $5.44, with world gold at $1,017.81 and $1,013.12. Quite adequate for legal imports. Today must have been difficult for Indian bullion importers, as the rupee was erratic, initially firming to a 6 week high of R47.85 and then softening to close at $1= R47.98 (Tuesday R47.955). Unusually, an Indian Barclays analyst attributes the weakening to import purchases of "oil, sugar and gold" – usually only oil is cited. The stock market faltered, closing down 0.99%>

There continues to be every reason to expect India to be a strong buyer on any pull back in world gold.

Local gold in Vietnam slipped to a discount of $5.31 on world gold of $1,018.01 (Wednesday Discount 3c/$1111.47).

Japan was closed.

Today gold tried three times to clear $1,018 before bowing to selling pressure as NY opened. Volume is not particularly heavy: estimated at only 43,460 lots by 10AM. Contrary to the casual assertions of several analysts, Eurogold is tracking $US gold very closely today.

Cheerfully holding to modest positions in euro- and Sterling gold, The Gartman Letter observed today

"…we know with reasonable certainty is that the trend for gold is higher in all currencies, and that there is someone or something with some sense of intent trying

to keep gold from plowing upward through $1020- 1030, and thus far they’ve succeeded"

TGL suggests watching E700 gold as the break out point. Right now gold is at E683.

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