Two versions. One from the media, and my own interpretation.

Link:http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-down-on-upbeat-jobs-data-stronger-dollar-2009-08-07

Job losses moderate in July

Jobless rate dips to 9.4% as 247,000 nonfarm payrolls lost

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By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Job losses slowed in July to the lowest total since August as the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell back to 9.4%, the Labor Department estimated Friday.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 247,000 to 131.5 million in July, the 19th consecutive month of job losses, about in line with economists' estimates of a 275,000 decline. See Economic Calendar.

Economists said the report showed the labor market was getting better but was still not good.

Most industries continued to shed jobs in July, but at a much slower pace than they did in the autumn and winter. Payrolls have fallen by an average of 331,000 in the past three months, compared with an average of 645,000 in the six months before that. Read the full government report.

Since the recession began in December 2007, 6.7 million jobs have been lost, according to the survey of hundreds of thousands of work sites around the nation.

Job losses in May and June weren't quite as bad as first reported; payrolls were revised higher by 43,000 for the two months.

A separate survey of 60,000 households showed some improvement in July, with the unemployment rate falling to 9.4% from 9.5% in June. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting the jobless rate to rise to 9.7%.

An alternative measurement of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and workers forced to work just part-time fell to 16.3% in July from 16.5% in June.

Unemployment fell by 267,000 to 14.5 million. The labor force declined by 422,000, which means the jobless rate fell because people dropped out of the work force, not because they got jobs. The employment-participation rate fell from 65.7% to 65.5%.

Nearly 5 million people -- more than a third of the unemployed -- had been out of work for longer than six months. It the highest percentage of long-term employed since the Depression.

The report showed some signs of improvement. The average work week rose to 33.1 hours after falling to a record-low 33 hours in June. The average work week in manufacturing (a key leading indicator) rose from 39.5 hour to 39.8 hours. Total hours worked in the private-sector were unchanged.

"The improvement in the average work week to 33.1 hours in July is the most encouraging sign in this report and is the equivalent of a 400,000 addition to payrolls on a production equivalent basis," wrote economists for Bank of America's Merrill Lynch.

Average hourly earnings rose by 3 cents, or 0.2%, to $18.56.

The increase in the factory work week could mean industrial production will rise for the first time since October, and the increase in hourly wages should provide a needed boost to incomes, said Brian Fabbri, U.S. economist for BNP Paribas. Payrolls, output, incomes and business sales are the four key indicators that determined whether the economy is in a recession or is growing.

Job losses moderated in many major industries in July. Of 271 industries, 30.1% were hiring on net in July, up from 28.6% in June. In manufacturing, 22.3% of industries were hiring, the highest percentage since September.

Goods-producing industries shed 128,000 jobs, the fewest since last September. Manufacturing industries cut 52,000 jobs, bringing the total lost in this recession to 2 million. Auto manufacturing added 28,000 jobs in July, a statistical fluke owing to the timing of plant retoolings.

The number of auto workers is only half of what it was in 2000.

Service-producing industries cut 119,000 jobs, including 44,000 in retail and 38,000 in professional and business services. Employment at temp agencies declined by 10,000.

Health-care added 20,000 jobs.

Comment:

My spin on the some of the items in the latest job report:

An additional 247,000 people lost their jobs in the month of July.

Payrolls have fallen by an average of 331,000 in the last three months. Add this to the average of 645,000 for the six months prior and the total for the last nine months is 4,863,000. This indicates that the “official” unemployment rate has increased by 50.46% in the last nine months alone.

The unemployment percentage “dropped?” from 9.5% to 9.4%.

Why?

Well, the labour force in July, declined, not by 247,000, but by 422,000. That means the fall in the tax base increased by 0.02%.

Assuming that the 422,000 includes the “official?” unemployed number of 247,000, averaged over the last nine months, that means, other than those claiming unemployment benefits, an additional 1,575,000 have not been able to contribute to the tax base of the country and/or their individual state. This “dropout” total increases the unemployment base in the last nine months alone, to 66.81%.

Assuming that the rates in decline stay constant for the next three months, the increase in non-contributors over the last twelve months alone, will be 89.07%,(official plus dropouts).

Please not:

The above numbers do not reflect the additional “dependents” hired by all levels of government.

Is this really why the markets are strength today?

I doubt it!

Good Luck to all!