more Gartman comments on the new proposed status of SDR
posted on
Apr 08, 2009 02:09PM
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Finally, in a world that has suddenly begun talking far too often about “reserves” and “reserve currencies,’ and “reserve currency status,” we note that one of the giants in the field, Dr. Robert Mundell, a gentleman who has long been an advisor to the Chinese government and a gentleman who won the Nobel Prize for Economics in ’99, has strongly endorsed the notion that the SDR should move toward reserve currency status and that the Chinese Renminbi should be included in the basket of currencies that is the SDR itself. Noting that the IMF’s SDR is revised every five years and that next year is that year, Dr. Mundell said from Hong Kong a day ago that It is time for a change. The Chinese Yuan is now the third most important currency in the world… arguably more important than the Yen, depending on how your measure it, [thus] I believe that in 2010 the Yuan should be added to the SDR. In so doing, Dr. Mundell has said that it is reasonable to reduce the US$’s position in the SDR from 45% to 40%; that the EUR should be held at 29% of the SDR’s value; that the Yen’s percentage should also be kept steady… at 15%; that the British pound sterling’s weighting be cut from its present 11% to perhaps 5%, or even perhaps to 0%, with the Yuan taking of the remainder. Dr. Mundell… oft times referred to as The Father of the Euro, for it was he who championed the currency early on… is exactly right concerning the Yuan’s ascendency to its position just ahead of the Yen. China’s role in the global economy is swiftly moving ahead of that of Japan, and with a growing population and a rising economy, along with a growing military presence, China’s position amongst the global economic elite is assured. As a friend once said, “We must remember that of the history of the past thirty centuries, China’s economy was the largest in the world for 27 of them; we are simply regressing to the mean.” Although obviously said in jest, our friend spoke the truth. Dr. Mundell’s comments are simply more evidence of that fact.