Welcome To The Golden Minerals HUB On AGORACOM

Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.

Free
Message: Toby gives us a plug ;o))

Toby gives us a plug ;o))

posted on Apr 07, 2009 10:08PM
Author: tobinator00


Market Thoughts, Charts and ECU Silver
Good Evening. We have experienced a barrage of feel good news from Washington and financial media. The Dow has rallied from 6500 to just over 8000 in less than four weeks. The rah rah intensified last week as the G20 wrapped up and leaders went home. Consequently over this period of time gold went from $1007 to $860 with the last few days being rather savage like to the metal.
I see nothing more than a coordinated push to by government and Wall Street to convince the masses the worst is over. These are the same two entities that never admitted anything was wrong until it was painfully evident to the most dense. We have seen similar bull pushes last year with the most recent that started after the low put in November, lasting three months until that low was violated. My guess is the latest attempt to artificially boost the markets will begin to stumble in earnest over the next few weeks.
The economic front shows job loss gaining momentum with the most ever being on continued claims benefits. Today I read that prime mortgage late payments are double the percentage this year than last. Sub-prime is running on the order of close to 40%. Housing sales figures are only doing better because of foreclosure sales. There are now noises being made the commercial real estate market is contracting rapidly. Increasingly poor economic data does not support the notion that the economy has bottomed and now is turning around.
The charts for the broader markets are showing signs of upside exhaustion. CNBC says that the coming pull back will be a buying opportunity. Interestingly they've been saying that since the Dow was over 13,000. The following is a list various key charts we PM investors like to watch:
Continuous Commodity Index,
Dow - Short Term,
Dow - Med Term,
Gold Futures,
HUI - Short Term,
HUI - Medium Term,
Oil Futures,
Platinum Futures,
Silver Futures,
S&P 500 - Short Term,
US Dollar Index,
Back 11 months and 21,700 messages ago when Kazoo and I revamped this board, we wanted to make a place to discuss all things precious metal related. The many participants on the board have realized this goal but we've had bumps along the way (or should I say trolls along the way). One goal I had in mind is that this board would be a place to share stock ideas. This is the one area where presently the discussion lacks. I think it emanates from those who attack new investment strategies and the people who propose them. To help break new ground in this area, I'm going to throw out a potentially promising stock: ECU Silver.
A little over three years ago, I bought 40,000 shares of ECU Silver at C$0.40. They kept hitting good drill results and was garnering a great deal of attention by members of the Lemetropolecafe.com. ECU began hitting some very high grade silver holes and found numerous mineral rich veins. The stock exploded in a very short period of time form C$0.40 to over C$3.00. Subsequently after that move, great drill results barely nudged the stock north like it did. I then had some nice looking stocks I wanted to buy and sold all my ECU. Over the next 20 or so months after I sold, I'd peek at ECU and all it did was fall as more silver resources were being proved up. ECU management made a bad decision that they would cease limited production of silver and load up on debt. That is precisely what they should not have done in hindsight with the credit crisis roaring and investors not giving too hoots about exploration results.
It seems to me that ECU pulled their head out and changed their corporate strategy. They issued 25 million shares and warrants in January and purchased a mill from Hecla that is right next to their property. They found the mill operation in excellent shape and are now ahead of schedule for starting up production. I think that now may be a highly favorable risk to reward ratio investment in ECU. The stock is currently trading at C$0.54 after being depressed after the C$0.70 placement at the end of January. Their resources are around 430 million ounces of silver equivalent with the potential of more than doubling it in coming years. Their production is targeted at 1.2 million ounces this year with the possibility expanding capacity. This is a very high risk stock play and only really suited for masochists like myself. I recently purchased a slug of ECU warrants (strike C$0.95, expiry 58 months).
ECU Chart,
ECU Silver Presentation,
One last comment for the evening. I would like to thank the nine people who have donated money on my website. I'm looking to use it to get the next level of stockcharts to make my charting presentations better. Some people had commented they don't like paypal so we have recently opened up a PO Box to send in a check.
My new website:

5
Apr 08, 2009 05:26AM
5
Apr 08, 2009 07:30AM
Share
New Message
Please login to post a reply