This glass is more than half full
posted on
Feb 19, 2009 06:59PM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
I do not want to overly influence the decision making process for anyone else out there but here is my opinion for what its worth. The share price today represents exactly what sellers agree to accept for a share, and buyers are willing to pay. It has no other significance in this market which is dominated by fear. As long as there are willing players who have chosen to dump large volumes of stock then it really doesnt matter how much fundamental strength ECU may have as a company. Over the longer term, the fundamentals tend to dictate the share value and even after a sustained bout of selling a good stock will recover.
This latest deal should have investors feeling very good about ECU. The company is getting a mill to finally ensure that meaningfull and profitable gold production will be generated. The value of the gold in the tailings will be unlocked and realised. And we will have more cash in the treasury for operating expenses and to start paying down debt, which builds a greater margin of safety in our investment during this uncertain economic environment.
If there are naked shorts at work, or if institutions have unloaded their holdings to replace them with PP shares, then most of the damage from that is behind us. However if the company is much stronger now and the stock is much cheaper, it strikes me as a good time to be buying, and I have. I have been a buyer during the dips for much of the last couple of years, and was also ready to take profits during the peaks and rallies. ECU is a volatile stock and owning a core position is much easier if one can build trading profits along the way. Let the shorts try to run it lower and so what if some people decide this company is not for them and sell into the dips.
I really could not care a big rats ass if we endure another big correction along the way. Last fall ECU was getting crushed and then it was recovering while other juniors were trending lower. The big picture tends to smooth things out. If this PP has created a mini-capitulation for the stock, then the way ahead should be clear for yet another bounce off the lows. Pointing a finger at management or other contributors to the forum is not going to make a difference either way. I was disgusted when ECU started trending below $2, but it is what it is. So here we are at 50 cents. Life is hard. Unlike the big banks, insurance companies, and many other sectors, ECU is better positioned now to recover than it was last year. I will hang in there and expect better days ahead.
Lets keep in mind one small fact: TD and Blackmont are both respectable houses and they have done extensive DD before putting this deal together. They felt the offering was good value at 70 cents. If the market is discounting that down to 50 cents for a short duration, then shouldnt we be even happier to have the opportunity to buy so cheap?
cheers!
mike