We do not want to be cynical but must be realistic. We think this year will be the worst one of this longer recession-depression cycle and our new leader, we suspect is going to take a merciless pounding from a heap of troubles domestically first and foreign later.

Thankfully, the spending of TARP #2 and whatever billions-trillions are added for emphasis, should give us the Obama Market Bounce lasting perhaps 90 days or so. While this economics plan has no chance in our view, the herd psychology of markets should give us a nice relief rally almost across the board. The dollar is flat to down on the intermediate cycle and bonds are the same. We forecast the balance of our favorites to rally along with shares in both the mainstream and precious metals.

However, with spring flowers in April we are expecting a quintuple smash of:

Wave one of commercial real estate foreclosures and loan failures.

Wave one of auto loan failures containing billions in bank, credit union and auto finance company loans will smash credit markets. The reaction will be stunning and probably stop most vehicle lending temporarily for weeks paralyzing automakers and those lenders still doing car and truck loans.

Wave one of several future waves of credit card failures estimated at $40 billion by bank credit analysts will be an April smash. Normally card failures are in the 1-2% range annually. This larger event opens doors for a historic new number of non-payers and delinquents. This cycle is mostly job loss related but most of it is due to overspending by cardholders.

Wave one of the CDS Credit Default Swaps will hit markets like a Tsunami. These failures will be so overpowering, those in charge will be stunned and flabbergasted by the numbers. The figures are so large we cannot even imagine the amounts. One analyst said it was estimated between $500 and $750 Trillion dollars! There is no margin or deposit money on these trades.

We See A Crisis Of Insolvency.

Unemployment is rising swiftly throughout the world. In the U.S. we see 500,000 jobs per month going down the drain….Further, when fear sets in as in today’s situation, those still working stop spending.

Towns, Cities, States And Municipalities Losing Tax Income

Pensioners are a dominant investor group in municipal bonds for retirement income. Real estate taxes are the primary driver of cash-in for these groups. With tax values sinking and taxpayers defaulting, your local township, village, county or city is not receiving enough income to pay bond interest. We think there is a distinct possibility California goes bankrupt!!

It has been said that whenever a nation’s debts exceed GDP by over +6%, there is no recovery. The U.S. crossed that threshold last year and is headed for +10% on debts over GDP. There is no turning back and the recovery could be a decade or more away. We are going broke nationally for certain.

The USA War Machine Will Shrink.
We Can’t Pay For It And Most Americans Are Tired Of Feeding.
Defense Companies To Manufacture Stuff That’s Blown-Up And Wrecked.

New Currencies, Bretton Woods And T-Bonds

Our New York global trading and investment banks will require constant infusions of new cash to stay afloat. The TARP funding and still more to come is tossing cash into a bottomless pit. One of the world’s bigger banks is going to fail this year and it will be a disaster.

Next, one of the larger insurance companies will go bankrupt and create another shock to the core of our system and that of the world. This insurance company crash will be matched by a monster blue chip American company failing and shocking Wall Street.

The U.S. Bond bubble is the mother of all bubbles and has tragic consequences for the entire world. These markets are 70 times larger than the shares markets and form the lifeblood of capital for global finance. When this one breaks, the reverberations slam the world’s financial systems to the bone.

Survivors and Those Who Win Buy Gold And Silver

We think the secret to getting is to hunker down, eliminate debts, keep a low profile, trade in gold and silver shares during this first quarter along with futures, and then adjust in April when stocks sell off. Gold topped out near $850 years ago right where our price is today. We forecast 80% of the gold upside is still ahead in these markets. Silver is behind gold for now but will catch-up. They never trade like twins most of the time. We think the worst silver could do is $50; but expect much higher prices.

We look forward with anticipation to some great fun in these markets. If you are not in a position now, hurry-up and get it done. The door is open for all the shares’ markets including our precious metals. Futures traders in gold and silver have been trading this past week in large size. It seems the new trend is established and our long awaited rallies are underway.

In Trader Tracks, we provide weekly guidance and extra e-mail alerts to report our best new trades and offer suggestions for trade management. Visit our website at webeatthestreet.com for more information on our spectacular futures and commodities trading record.

Whatever you do, make a concerted effort to stay with our trend and hang onto your core holdings of favorite shares, cash, and coins. Physical gold should never be sold or, traded but rather accumulated steadily on a monthly savings plan.

Recent news says you cannot find any coins or, others. We see delays and back-orders but some dealers have goods in hand right now. Go shopping. Should you have difficulty buying physical metals, we suggest placing an order and being patient. Big traders are always ready to buy the dips and normally never sell their gold and silver. You would be amazed how quickly your physical gold and silver will accumulate using this strategy.

Roger Wiegand

www.webeatthestreet.com