"Has anyone more insight on what part of overall silver production is being affected by the slump in base metal mining?"

I can give you a "from memory" estimate of the current direction. Most of the data is from web surfing and I can't provide a list of URLs to check.

Only about 23% of silver comes from silver mining. Gold/base metal byproduct accounts for ~70% the rest from recycling.

I know that copper lead and zinc are in oversupply and some mines are shutting down to minimize losses. The extremely low prices for base metals in the last 8 months will persist until current inventories are consumed. London reports huge inventory of aluminum, steel, lead and zinc. Copper bigger than 8 months ago but not excessively large by historical averages.

I have read two reasons for the increasing inventories: lack of demand and the exit of speculators willing to remain long. I have read that China is greatly reducing their import of base metals due to lack of global demand for their manufactured goods. I have also read that China is re-vectoring their focus to infrastructure which may revive demand in the future.

One incredible thing I read is that China was so caught up in the energy tightness of 06 thru early 08 that they bought a lot of future supply at prices significantly higher than today’s prices. The reason was given that US caused a slight restriction of supply and moved the prices (via paper markets) to record prices sending China into a panic. The Chinese must have the energy to sustain their growth.

The demand for silver has exceeded supply for 11 years according to CPM and for over 25 years as reported by some analysts. At any rate the 4 billion ounces of silver held by the US govt in the 70’s must be nearly exhausted. The strategic reserve of silver went to 0 in 07. Any remaining US silver may be as fictitious as the 8300 tonnes of US gold. The two great stores of silver are reported to be CRIMEX, London, and the silver ETF’s. Most of that is privately “owned” and some is owned by more than one entity.

Silver mine exploration has been decimated in this current price slump. Some mines are shutting down awaiting higher prices. Some countries have nationalized some mines and others are threatening to do so. Recycling began to shrink as the price fell.

Investor demand is high, is trending higher and is unfulfilled as the premiums for weights less than 100 oz demonstrate.

Last, in the late 80’s when the Hunts tried to buy silver from the CRIMEX, the US govt still had billions of ounces of silver and the price still went to $50 before the CRIMEX changed the rules allowing only sales not purchases. What is going on right now is just astounding. Supply is paper thin for physical and a glut as far as paper silver goes. If it weren’t for a corrupt new jerk and dc cartel there is no telling what price silver could attain.

That probably didn’t exactly answer your questions Dont, but I think I covered the current situation. Hope it is of some value. Scruff