Suspicions are running high this morning amongst respected analysts and economists on the latest jobs data issued at 8:30 am. Of course, all government data is almost useless but this latest effort seems to getting more attention than previous frauds. Here is one comment from Sean Brodrick...
PM's bouncing back - VHF
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Smoke and Mirrors
Sean Brodrick
Friday, January 09, 2009
Today, everyone will be talking about the fact that the U.S. lost 524,000 jobs in December. While this means 2008 saw the most job losses since 1945, 524,000 is way, way lower than traders on the floor were expecting. Numbers like 700,000 or even 800,000 jobs lost were bandied about.
So today's number is good news, right? Not exactly. The umployment rate now clocks at 7.2% versus a forecast of 7%. That's because of upward revisions to previous months' jobs lost figures.
And that brings up the next problem. December's number is so low that many people (including me) don't believe it. It could be smoke and mirrors from a government that doesn't think we can handle the truth. I expect we'll December's number revised in the future. After all, state unemployment claims systems are being overwhelmed by new filings. Things are so bad in Michigan that people are waiting in line four hours to file for unemployment. I think a lot of unemployed got left out of last month's number.
