Metal and Company values for ECU's NI43-101
posted on
Dec 10, 2008 09:11PM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
I had a chance to completely read today's ECU news release for their updated NI 43-101 resource study. First, I read that the resource includes ECU's 50% share of San Diego, so that does not need to be added. Also I read a footnote that the resource is adjusted already for the anticipated metal recovery rates. A couple of observations before we get to the numbers. First is that ECU's resource is about 25% from the San Deigo property and the remaining 75% is from the fully owned main property and the Chicago property. While the resource report from San Diego was awesome, the grades from the fully owned main and Chicago properties are about 50% better for the measured+indicated+inferred (M+I+I)and are about 30% better for the potential resources. Second is that the news release stated the metal content cutoff values were $25/tonne for bulk mining greater than 2.7 meters wide and $45/tonne for narrow veins with veins less than 1 meter wide diluted for a 1 meter minimum excavation. If we assume that 1/4 of the tonnage is bulk mining and 3/4 of the tonnage is narrow mining, then the average mine and mill cost is $40/tonne. I like to be conservative so I have used a cost of $45/tonne in the cost analysis. Third is that the mineral potential does not include values for zinc, lead, or copper. The report stated that general silver and gold value for the mines totals 66% of the total value. I think that the base metal value in the massive sulphides will be at least 34%, so we can assume that the potential resource is 2/3 gold and silver and 1/3 base metals. The potential mineral resource can than be increased 50%. Fourth, the report explained that the actual mineral content of some mined stopes was 300% or 4 times that of the drill assays. I don't know if this was due to poor assaying or dilution of the drill core contents due to the vein being decomposed rock or similiar. If this descrepency turns out to occur throughout the mine then we don't have a silver mine, we have a gold mine! Below is a cut and paste from the news release which details this finding:
"Furthermore, an additional 75,693,747 ounces silver-equivalent was added to both the minimum and maximum to reflect the fact that gold and silver grades from actual stopes were significantly higher than grades from drill holes that defined those blocks prior to mining them. The increase was material in all cases and averaged approximately 300% using four well documented cases. Using the three smallest increases for gold and silver, the average increase obtained was 93% for gold and 134% for silver. This difference was applied to the 6,207,471 tonnes grading 3.05 g/t gold and 146 g/t silver representing the inferred resources at Santa Juana which were based uniquely on drill-hole information, yielding the potential increase mentioned above."
Also, ECU should be commended on a well prepared and presented news release. The release described the resource methodology well and the tables clearly detailed the amounts and grades of the resource and showed how the resource has dramatically increased over the last few years.
Measured + Indicated + Inferred
Mineral Resource = 430.729 million ounces Ag Equiv
Tonnage = 30,469,000 tonnes
Average Ag Equiv Grade = 14.14 oz/tonne
Average Metal Value = $197.91/tonne
Life of Mine with 5,000 tpd Mill = 16.7 years
Measured + Indicated + Inferred + Max Potential increased 50% for Base Metals
Mineral Resource = 1,826.33 million ounces Ag Equiv.
Tonnage = 117,655,000 tonnes
Average Ag Equiv Grade = 15.52 oz/tonne
Average Metal Value = $217.32/tonne
Life of Mine with 10,000 tpd mill = 32.23 years
Mine and Mill Cost = $45/tonne
Profit = $172.32/tonne
Total Profit over Life of Mine = $20,274,309,600
Profit per Year = $629,050,872
Market Cap Value Using 10 to 1 PE = 6,290,508,719
Projected Market Cap/Resource = $3.44/ounce
ECU Shares Fully Diluted = 263,584,807
Estimated Value per ECU Share = $23.86/share
Current ECU Price U.S. $ = $0.767/share
Current Market Cap/Ag Equiv = $0.11/ounce
While the above share price estimate assumes no further dilution, if the market turns hear, ie silver and base metal prices increase, and our share price increases to $3 we should be able to finance a 1500 or 5000 tpd starter mill with a combination of debt finacing and minimal share dilution. I beleive ECU's estimated cost for a 1500 tpd mill is around $70 million. Regards.