I just have to...
posted on
Nov 25, 2008 12:38PM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
... post this snippet from last night's Midas.
"
The FED was created in 1913. Since then, we have had 3 major Dow:Gold ratio super cycles, each having about a 37 year time period. As we all know, fiat money, created in 1913 by the use of the FED since then, carries with it inherent manipulations and interventions causing high volatility in the financial markets. From eye ball approximations of the graph, one can see increasing Dow:Gold ratio highs, at about 18:1 in 1924, 22:1 in 1966, and 30:1 in about 1999. The trend is increasing, with higher highs, in the Dow:Gold ratio. The bottoms are about at 2:1 in 1913, 1.8:1 in 1925, and 1:1 in 1978. The trend is decreasing with lower lows, in the Dow:Gold ratio bottoms. The current trend is toward a lower low. The projected next bottom in the Dow:Gold ration appears to be about Dow:Gold = 0.4. The Dow:Gold ratio just hit about 10:1 from the 30:1 ratio high in 1999, and hence, the down trend in tact and should head much lower. It is also observed that the down trends of the major cycle is much steeper than the up trends of the major super cycle, at about 1/3. That is, it takes 1/3 the time to go from peak to trough in the Dow:Gold ratio, than it does from trough to peak. With a super cycle of 37 years, 1/3 of that time is 12 years, and hence, the super cycle trend indicates a Dow:Gold = 0.4 in 2011.
Lately, many are calling a gold fair market value of $14,000, and many are calling for a Dow bottom at 6000, and that means, 6000Dow/0.4 = 15,000$/oz Gold in 2011, and is consistent with those fair market value estimates. As well understood, silver outperforms gold toward the end of surges in prices of gold. Currently, the ratio is way out of alignment, at 83:1, mostly caused by the huge summer smack down in silver from 21.30/oz to 8.60/oz, and on a smack down, silver underperforms gold, being more highly volatile in price. At gold price surges, Silver can hit as low as a gold:silver ratio of 15:1 and that is based upon historical prices, but in the extremes, a Gold:Silver ratio of 10:1 is very realistic.
So lets fast forward to 2011. The dow should bottom at 6000, Gold should hit $15,000/oz, and silver, are you ready for this, should hit $1500/oz. So, lets keep our eyes on the Gold:Silver ratio, as well as the Dow:Gold ratio, enroute to $1500/oz silver, $15,000/oz gold, and a Dow:Gold ratio of 0.4.
Derrick"
So ECU ought to go for about $500 a share in 30 months? A whole new class of millionares will we be?
He he he...