This is certainly shaping up to be a unique market period. For sure the world will we see a recession but certainly not a depression. It's also the most unusual recession I have ever seen as interest rates are already low instead of high, inventories are low instead of high, money has seized up instead of being readily available, bonds haven't made a staement in months and I don't know where the bond vigilantes are they seem to have disappeared. Commerce is seizing because of lack of available capital in the face of the greatest money hoarding by banks the world has ever witnessed and of course solvency issues abound.

I also note that new resource projects whether they be copper or oil are being shelved and I would guess between this and unprofitable mines closing or shale gas wells being shut in or lack of drilling plans combined with a significant reduction in capex at the well head that commodity supply has probably kept pace with demand destruction or at least close and this is on top of significant large mines already being depleted or scheduled for closing plus very real major oil producing areas of the world experiencing serious well production declines. But I suspect the evidence for this is not yet clear or available since most people, including analysts, are shell shocked.

I would be remiss if I didn't mention the serious erosion in gold production from countries like South Africa and of course the serious reduction of silver production from the closing of lots of now unprofitable zinc mines. Add to this that costs of production for gold/silver has turned decidedly higher over the last few years but easing recently and it easy to see severe shortages emerging compared to physical demand which has been excellerating.

My point is that things are not what they appear and seem but no one can catch their breath right now to see the forest for the trees in the commodity sector with all this forced liquidation of hedge funds, mutual funds and retail investors occurring due to redemptions and margin calls with banks hoarding all the cash they have been provided so far. This log jam will break and I suspect the other side will generate the greatest returns of my generation in the markets even if that seems absurd at this point in time.