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Message: UBS Acknowledges Gold Suppression

UBS Acknowledges Gold Suppression

posted on Sep 24, 2008 05:06AM

Most interesting to read about the $910 cap on gold over the past few days as explained by UBS below.

Regards - VHF

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September 24, 2008 5:30:41 AM

Author: John Reade

Metals Daily

Gold confined by Comex expiry

As we noted yesterday, the Comex October expiry on Thursday has a lot of open interest between $890 and $910/oz and we believe it is no co-incidence that gold is struggling to get far from here at the moment. Barring an external factor breaking gold out of this range - which effectively means either a big move in the dollar, perhaps crude oil, or possibly risk aversion - then we will remain around the current levels until after the expiry, which takes place after the Comex close on Thursday. Then gold will be better-able to move more freely, as gamma hedging will reduce. We hold our forecasts of $925/oz in one month and $975/oz in three months although much higher gains could occur if the dollar falls sharply or if systemic risk concerns rise sharply.




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