Words From The Wizard
posted on
Sep 17, 2008 05:15AM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
A few noteworthy points below made by Bill Cara today. Also, Morgan Stanley is down about 15% today in pre-market and the DOW futures are down about 120 pts. thus far. Perhaps another entertaining day before us.
Regards - VHF
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One of my key indicators for timing the end of the current Bear market will be the Toronto Venture Board index. This index is a sophisticated measure of trader confidence and appetite for risk.
If you look at the Weekly data chart, you will see the first hit to prices occurred in late July-beginning of August 2007, when the credit crunch overwhelmed the equity market. Then in late June this year when Bear Stearns collapsed there was a second massive sell-off. Yesterday with the Lehman/AIG issues, this index plunged a further -5.0%. That is a loss of -56.7% from the high of 3372 in 2Q07.
The majority of these companies are negative cash flow companies. Many are well-funded. Many have debt. But, given that interest rates will remain at near historic lows for the foreseeable future, I believe many of these companies will remain solvent well into 2009 and 2010. Based on a study of their assets, many having significant natural resources (oil, gas, gold, silver, etc), the share price of some of these companies is very attractive, and in some cases is even less than the cash on the balance sheet. Smart traders look at value, and these values warrant close study.
So, when you see the reversal in the CDNX market (ie, Toronto Venture Board), I believe that will be a signal that smart money (of which there is plenty around) is returning to capital markets. That will be the time for you to take a reasonable risk to seek the legitimate reward opportunities that equity markets periodically present.
For long-term holders of precious metal funds, which are substantially down in price, I would continue to hold at this point. I believe the oil price will hit a cycle bottom soon, which will support the gold price.
With the reckless, unjustifiable destruction of the US Treasury under a failed Treasury Secretary, I believe there will soon be another major failure of the $USD, and another pop in commodity prices. Presently, commodity prices are under the control of the Interventionists, with the backing of the US Treasury. That is not a situation that can continue long with a rapidly deteriorating US Balance Sheet.
The $200 billion cost of taking control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was only the first shot from the Paulson bazooka. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is reporting a new development that ought to shake up America, such as, “with the full support of the Treasury Department”, lending $85 billion to AIG for 80% of the shares in that insurance company. That move, plus others such as the post-bankruptcy filing of Lehman Brothers Holdings re-payment by the Fed of $138 billion of Lehman debt to JPMorgan Chase are historic. Without that payment, JP Morgan was also bankrupt. Who is next? Judging from the trading action in Morgan Stanley and their problems this week in the credit markets, are they next to go?
The public and their elected representatives need to understand the Fed organization, its policies, governance, etc. A stop to this nonsense is urgently needed.
Under the caption “governance”, the Fed website lists the Board of Directors who are ultimately the Fed decision makers, and the parties they were elected to protect. There was never an intention to have Directors serve their own interests first.
With the Lehman bankruptcy and the bail-out of JPMorgan, it is fair to say there is no longer any governance over Fed Open Market Operations. The head trader of the FOMC is ex-Goldman Sachs US chief economist William Dudley.
3 Class A Directors elected by member banks to represent member banks, including: Jamie Dimon, Chairman of the Board and CEO, JPMorgan Chase3 Class B Directors elected by member banks to represent the public, including:
Richard S. Fuld, Jr., Chairman and CEO, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
With the actions of the past week regarding Fannie, Freddie, Lehman Brothers, AIG, and soon to be others (Is Ford and General Motors next?), the capital market is now under complete control by Mssrs. Dimon, Fuld, and Paulson, people who are either bankrupt or morally hazardous. In a bloodless coup, these people have seized control from the US government. The only blood that will be spilled will be that of suicide victims on Main Street.
Flags across America should be lowered to half mast today. This is not the way the Forefathers wanted the country run. And those leaders who signed the US Declaration of Independence had no such intention for their notion of parliamentary sovereignty.
Why did America go off the rails? I think we have the answers to that today. It is time for Congress to fix the problem.