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Message: Analysis of Present Oil Crisis

I met Sean Brodrick last week in Mexico. I think the guy is brilliant and it was a pleasure to spend a few days in his company as part of a larger group. Sean is not the only one that is focusing on problems in Mexico over declining oil production. And I do not dispute that problems are on the horizon if the country does not step up exploration to replace the declining reserves.

What has me pissed off is that some of the rhetoric from other people would suggest that Mexico is going to fail as a state on the crisis. Please! Lets just look at the numbers: oil exports from Mexico declined 15% Y-O-Y. But the price that was realised for those exports has increased about 100% Y-O-Y. So the country is not about to have to resort to bake sales to fund programs. And it surely is not about to disolve into anarchy. Like most nations in the world, Mexico will have to deal with challenges and change policy, but lets not turn this into hysteria.

My rant has very little to do with Sean and his commentary, it just got me going to see the Mexico 'crisis' mentioned yet again.

cheers!

mike

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