We continue to be bullish of gold, although it is clear that
there is someone or something as an aggressive seller of
spot gold at the $950 level. There was as strong seller at
that same level back in late March, and we assume it is
the same seller this time. "His" persistence has to be
admired. However, when $950 was touched and turned
back in March, the market had run straight from $900
without any consolidation along the way, and so when it
ran into this seller it was already exhausted... rather like
an army that has marched too far and done so too swiftly
only to run into the enemy who is healthy and prepared to
fight. This time, gold has moved quietly and steadily
toward $950, consolidating each $10-$15 rally by
correction $5-$7, before regaining its momentum to the
upside.
As we write, spot gold is trading $942-$944, and although
we do not expect to see the resistance at $950 taken out
today, we'd not be surprised to see the market trade
quietly toward that level and then punch through early
next week:
04/18 04/17
Gold 943.80 948.95 - 5.15
Silver 18.35 18.56 - .21
Palladium 460.00 463.00 - 3.00
Platinum 2062.0 2058.0 + 4.00
Gld/Slvr Ratio . 51.43 51.12 + .31
DJ-AIG Comm Index 214.40 215.00 - 0.3%
Reuters/Jefferies CRB 418.76 418.76 + 1.0%
