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Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.

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Message: About those cycles

Re: About those cycles

posted on Apr 03, 2008 09:16AM

an $850.00 support zone 'would' deliver a $1550 wave high..but waves are an interpretation of sentiment vs time.. for instance the extended consolidation sideways wave from the May 06 top was an expression of over bullish sentiment on the Comex compared with a wave low that 'was' only delivered in London the following January, although appeared in comex silver.

The only way that you could really estimate an accurate wave price target without having the time element in it , would be in actively manipulating the emotions of market traders. So then you have to look at the 'analysts' who are cheerleaders or Elliot speculators and wonder what their motivation is at any particular time, for calling specific price levels publicly months or years before hand. The whole thing Wall st thing 'is' rigged. Institutions use quantum computer simulators to work out price projections, but the waves are still going to be based on sentiment, some fundamental (but which most of the time is too complicated for the average non commercial trader to take on board) , and time, while bulls and bears struggle to compromise.

Web sites suggest that gold has gome up or down on such and such a day because of a particular piece of news - but it doesnt always stack up. Something happens that might be a profit taking or technical event and the media present a case 'of the day'. Why would gold be sold off - in an environment or rising inflation , when people have been buying it purely as an inflation hedge, ...because of dollar deleveraging? . We should think about this, because inflation is rising worldwide (not from commodities but from m3 money supply generally which over there is no longer reported). Money will have to find a home somewhere.. if it isnt going to be invested in risky mortgages it will have to go somewhere else where there's a healthy return. If a bank is going under and the margin clerks call for sales of assets- all assets, will those investment banks have been buying gold and silver bullion as assets, or will they be sitting on equities (funds); what are they more likely to be holding as investments for themselves or their customers?. Another point though, a rising USD makes US equities more attractive to europeans, especially the miners who have growth potential beyond the rise in the pms.

A 5 series is an average, many sequences especially in commodities are ABC waves, which split down. Sometimes a series of 7 or 9 can be seen in some long term charts, which are really clusters.

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