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Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.

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Message: Gold is being held back.

Gold is being held back.

posted on Mar 11, 2008 07:11PM

I supose that most of you on this board are relishing the prospects for silver appreciating in price and doing so at a faster rate of late than gold. In other words the gold to silver price ratio has dropped from a recent 55 or so to today's 50.

I want to say that do not cheer to much because it is probably not the silver on its own doing so well as much as gold being held back by the cartel.
The reason, or explanation if you prefer, is that there is not much psychological effect on the populace in silver going to 20$ or 25 per ounce but there is tremendous influence with gold achieving 1000$ and holding it.

Once gold hits 1000, media will get on the case and it will not only play on the funds and similar institutions but very likely ordinary Joe Six Pack will also notice and probably be willing to get on that gambling wagon. Once that happens there will be no turning back and the cartel will have to fold its hands and walk away.

Obviously they do not want that to happen with any fanfare. That means that they will delay the advance to 1000 as much as possible so that the progression appears very slow and natural so as not to wake Joe.

Almost 30 years ago Joe woke up and that is what spiked the gold price to well over 800$ and not any institutional investor. I have a relative (Joe by another name ) that still sits on some of the gold from that time and he got in for no reason than the fact that it appeared at the very late moment to better buy some gold before the price took off any further. Obviously he got in late and was not able to sell it all quickly enough to be still profitable on the remainder, hence the hold until now.

I happen to think that this time things will happen much more quickly due to us living in a much more efficient information age. It will likely be much like a dam bursting after a build up of pressure from heavy floods. The pressure then was from inflation caused by Vietnam war expenses and many were aware of it happening. This time it is just pure debts from mainly outsourcing, so it takes longer for the pressure to build up but due to that it is going more extreme before the event because the public is less aware and not taking countermeasures.
The derivatives, mortgages and other financial deviations, due to poor regulation, are not the main cause but side issues that just add more cracks to that dam.

Imo, the gold dam will burst first then silver and later their shares. Cheers.
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