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Message: Three More Key Charts

Three More Key Charts

posted on Mar 09, 2008 04:20PM

A few more charts for your perusal. They are all different but all point to a very weak U.S. economy on the brink. Other than the occasional technical bounce, the USD will sink to extreme depths. Mish summed it up succinctly earlier this week when he made the following statement: "Other than overleverage, bad debts, sinking home prices, no jobs, shrinking wages, cash strapped US consumers, rising oil prices, a sinking US dollar, $500 trillion in derivatives not marked to market, rampant overcapacity, underfunded pension plans, looming boomer retirements, no funding for Medicaid, no funding for Medicare, and no Social Security trust fund, everything is just fine."

Can't top that - VHF

Chart 1: The financial crisis seems to have entered its third wave. Panic in August, then partial recovery thanks to lots of money thrown at the system by the Fed. Renewed panic late fall, then partial recovery thanks to even more money thrown in, especially the Temporary Auction Facility. And panic has set in yet again as seen in the 3rd rise occurring in late February to date.

Chart 2: Amongst many other bail-outs and stimulus packages, the FED has slashed interest rates repeatedly. As shown below, these rate cuts have had a declining effect on upward market momentum. Supposedly, this was and still is the FED's most powerful tool aimed at jumpstarting the economy.

Chart 3: The combined 3 graphs below clearly show a weakening economy. As most of us are aware, the upper jobs chart is the least reliable indicator due to excessive and suspect assumptions, i.e. unrealistic birth/death model. However, even with manipulated jobs data, this chart is still trending down. Note however, that home prices declined only marginally after the tech bubble burst in 2001 but now we have a combined triple threat of weakening jobs, declining stock markets, and sharply falling home prices. What is especially worrisome is the fact that home foreclosures typically peak at the end of recessions. This time around though, foreclosures have already exceeded previous highs and home prices have just initiated their fall.

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