Re:Help me to understand
in response to
by
posted on
Feb 26, 2008 12:55PM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
Hi MYER!
I removed the double post, yet it still shows up on the forum as 'post removed' which defeats the purpose of cleaning up a double post...
To reply to your question, perhaps what you need to question is your insistance that good news must automatically and instantly be reflected in the share price. Or to put it another way, why do you feel that good news is only good news if it is validated by the market with a higher share price?
I can think of so many times in the last few months, with literally dozens of stocks, where good news - fantastic news in some cases - has just met with more selling. It is frustrating as hell, no doubt. But its part of the way a market trades.
Case in point: can you explain for me why the horrible market data this morning, on top of all the horrible data that has been reported in the last few months, resulted in the DOW rhomping to a triple-digit gain? Now as a trader, I do not consider the DOW to be anything more than a much better short opp today. And conversely, with ECU sucking wind right now, I DO consider it to be a much better buy right now on the back of all the good news.
In time all the news gets priced in. But there are competing influences on the pricing of a stock that will sometimes trump the effect of news in the short term. I think everyone on this forum can agree that the sector has gone through a test of commitment, and that scared money was backing away.
Consider the specific situation of ECU:
* It is far more liquid than most other juniors
* Most of the retail shareholders are still holding net gains even after the last year of corrections/selloffs
So it is not a bad guess to state that people who are scared, and looking at their PF to find a stock they can sell and get the most money out with the least of losses, would find ECU a good choice to sell. If that is true, then their selling has nothing to do with the calibre of management, or the sentiment regarding the NI43-101, or the price of silver.
Now I suppose if I wanted to I could spin the situation any number of ways. If I want to piss and moan about the stock I can find lots of reasons to gnash my teeth. But I am a realist and I know that sometimes you have to wait a lot longer than would be expected for good news to result in a higher share price. You would not believe the nasty emails and personal attacks I put up with a year ago regarding Capstone Mining (CS) because that stock was trading under a buck. Well, I went and bought the hell out of it, and not its closing in on $4. It just took time to clear out all the whiners, and for the market to figure out the things that the longs already knew.
My guess is that ECU will do a similar turnaround, and that is why I am here. That is why I have bought so many more share last year that my average cost base has tripled even though I have been in since 20 cents. And if ECU trades above $5 as I expect it will, then I am pretty smart. But having a handfull of idiots on some other forum assuming that I am a pumper, an idiot, a guru, etc is not going to change my outlook. I am not stupid today for buying, and then suddenly smart tomorrow. I make the best decisions I can based on the info that is available, and then I let the market do its thing, even if it takes a year or more to get there.
cheers!
mike