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Message: bear market

bear market

posted on Feb 14, 2008 11:18AM

I think many of the PM sector investors right now were not around to see how bad it was during the fallout from the Bre-X scandle. And most of the retail players in this market have not been through real bear market in their investment experience. The tech wreck was severe, but the bottom was put in more quickly than what we have endured in the PM sector during the last 22 months. I think the overall markets are going to be suffering through a prolonged bear market as well, that is just starting right now.

The degree of frustration, name calling, finger pointing, and all the rest of the emotional responses that I see on the forums are just an indication of the learning process that many people go through. People are just not used to seeing their stocks go down week after week, and some assume that there must be something wrong. I have seen so many companies trending lower, and for most of them there are posts that question management integrity and competence. I do not know of anything more effective that many of those companies could do to make a difference. We are in a bear market, plain and simple, and even good news is sold off.

For me the solution is to just ride it out. I think the overall fundamentals for the PM sector, and for many of the companies that I own, are very strong and will only get stronger. A recovery to new highs is worth waiting for, IMO.

It is not my job to issue investment advice. I have pointed out many times in the past that I share my opinion only. People have to make their own decisions on what they do. If you are unhappy or unable to ride it all out with confidence, then sell and move on. The idea that some people seem to think they can read a post on a forum and consider that the same as qualified investment advice, is bizzarre.

I do know that bear markets work their magic to drive share prices back into value territory, and they are followed by bull markets. I do not that effectively managed companies will survive a nasty bear market and recover temporary losses in share price. I am going to still be here when things pick up. I expect that we are very close to the next surge higher for the PM sector. But everyone has to make that choice for themselves, and take full responsibility for that decision.

cheers!

mike

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