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Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.

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Message: Re: Current value?

Jan 24, 2008 09:17AM

Mobic, consider well what GWR stated, there is experience and wisdom in those words. Read some of Coach's posts also in the same light.
Always be conscious that no matter whose words you read, we all have our views and opinions based on our experience and to a large extent they are subjective.
At the begining I try to take as much subjectivity out of the decision process as I can.
I don't to much analysing and usually just the basic of number crunching to compare different plays with the same measuring stick. And I am a gold bug instead of silver.

Here is my favourite method of estimating, note current resource is 220 million ounces and possible billion (that is worth at least a few extra percent). It does not bode well for a definite price but it goes very well in comparing to other metal mines ( i.e. apples to apples).

Value of In Ground Silver in millions of US dollars.
Resource Silver prices per ounce.
(millions of oz.) $15 $16 $18 $20
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
98 $1,470 $1,568 $1,764 $1,960
220 $3,300 $3,520 3,960 4,400
300 $4,500 $4,800 5,400 6,000
400 $6,000 $6,400 7,200 8,000
500 $7,500 $8,000 $9,000 $10,000
Shares outstanding: 242,000,000.


Value of in ground silver per share:
Resource Silver prices per ounce.
(millions of oz.) $15 $16 $18 $20
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
98 $6.12 $6.53 $7.35 $8.17
220 $13.64 $14.55 16.36 20.00
300 $18.75 20.00 22.50 25.00
400 $25.00 26.67 30.00 33.33
500 $31.00 $33.02 $37.19 $41.32

Note that I take the in ground value and deduct 90% for a non-producer, that gives a base, then I factor in management style ( in rare occasions can double the value), location (political risk and economic costs) etc., both positives for this company. However these are subjective and it depends on what value you place on them.
Never forget the basher's monkey wrench to throw you off.

So in the end it is still a large rubber band that stretches according to the individual.
Hence you ask a hard question that is difficult to answer for everybody.

There are another methods of calculating ( approximating) which I hope someone else may try to tackle.


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