ECU risk lower than ever from GWR @ SH
in response to
by
posted on
Dec 02, 2007 07:52PM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
SUBJECT: ECU risk lower than ever | Posted By: gwr |
Post Time: 12/2/2007 15:23 | |
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In my view the risks of ECU have never been lower. It was far more risky buying at .25 cents than now at $2.20 and some of the reasons are below. I'm sure others can add to the list, let's do so over the coming days. 1/ We now have 2 significant research reports out that were completed by well respected analysts from Bay Street. Blcakmont places a $3.10 target and TD Bank a $3.00 target. This process took a year in the making and tremendous amount of work by the team at ECU. There is a large universe of potential companies and these 2 firms decided ECU was a good candidate for research and of course as a recommendation to their institutional clients. This is the beginning for these firms and their institutional clients and I expect this will yield serious buying over the coming months. 2/ Some major institutional buyers placed around $28 million in May 2007 in a major financing of ECU at $2.30 per share. Always buy with the big boys for maximum safety when possible. Although they always wait until the second or third inning, they buy when the risk has been mitigated by those more open to risk such as some on this board who have been around for a long time. 3/ Revised 43-101 report to be published shortly and I'm confident it will be very well received by the knowledgeable investors, the street and funds/institutions. I very much doubt any serious Bay Street firm would have written up ECU if they thought they would be disappointed in the coming 43-101 and anyone who thinks otherwise just isn't thinking or can't period. 4/ Last years 43-101 had approximately 100 million silver eq. ounces and placed ECU in a significant category as the vast majority of juniors have no where this amount of resource. I'm confident this years report will be at least double last years and put the company in very rare category, a large and building resource with no end in site. 5/ I note that the TD Bank analyst stated that ECU has the potential for 500 million silver eq. ounces and knowing Bay Street analysts and banks as I do, they are always very conservative and rarely make a statement such as this. He must be very confidnet and his superiors as well or this statement would have never survived the vetting process and that's a fact. My contacts were very pleased this statement was made. 6/ Exploration program has continued with numerous significant discoveries of high grade veins over the last few months, Terneras vein extension, Roca Negra, and as of yet unnamed new vein. This while exploration progress continues on the previously known vein packages and mines such as San Mateo, Chicago, San Deigo, Santa Juana and San Juanes. Lots of work remains to fully delineate the vein systems on ECU property. I also should mention the discovery of chimney type zones in San Mateo, this has the potential to be very significant going forward. 7/ A serious amount of time has been spent in the last few months delineating the Santa Juana Mineralized Corridor on both sides of the fault for the purposes of the soon to be released revised 43-101, this development drilling will lay the foundation for future resource reports as the criteria for inclusion will have been well defined which should help expedite future reports. 8/ The exploration program at Valardena is still very imcomplete and much work at depth is required and I expect this will take on renewed focus in the weeks and months ahead. Not only will this expand the Minerlaized Corridor at depth past level 18 but seriously help define the 3 known skarns discovered to date with the last skarn discovery being at San Mateo mine earlier this year. 9/ A new institutional purchase on Friday Nov 30, 2007 of over 2 million shares representing over $4.3 million dollars at $2.05 per share. I also note this involved a seller but given the low cross price my guess would be it was distressed seller with a willing buyer getting a great deal. 10/ In my view the completion and final purchase of the Valardena land package in October 2007 was a major accomplishment and ranks as a milestone event for ECU of which there have been many over the years. Not only did the vendors accept stock as the major portion of the sale showing their confidence in ECU going forward and willingness to participate in share price appreciation but the sweetner of a half warrant means the stock must be above $3.75 if they are to make money on the warrants and they must put forward around $9 million to company coffers to exercise. 11/ Armed with a significantly growing resource, 2 analysts reports, continued serious exploration, development of a feasibility study in progress, a recent gold/silver correction, an outlook for much higher precious metal prices going forward, complete ownership of the land package and Steve Altmann has a perfect storm brewing for ECU when pitching to funds/institutions in the weeks and months ahead. I would expect share price target updates from both Blackmont and TD Bank in the coming weeks after they digest the soon to be released 43-101 report. My guess is Steve is going to be one busy person and also one of the happiest given how things are coming together. His job has been made much easier recently and I expect this will yield significant results for investors in the months ahead. Good luck and good investing to the good folks on this board, GWR |