Re: i never said "sure bet" ...GNH is a very good bet ...1 in 2 for a mine
posted on
Feb 25, 2012 02:20PM
New Discovery Resulting in a 20KM Mineralized Gold Belt
Danny...even a 1 in 2 chances is being very, very generous. At this point, I would more say we are 1 in 10. When I do the math for a buyout, I get $3 or 10 times our current share price so the market right now seems to think the odds are closer to 1/10.
My buyout target of $3 before anyone asks is based on proving up 3M ounces which we are still a very long and uncertain way away. For a buyout to occur, this is the number of ounces we need to prove up. This 3M ounces does not need to be 43-101 compliant as companies will do their own calculations and with the data that GNH provides, it should be easy for these companies to estimate our ounces. Also, if we are getting bought out and management does it's job, we should get paid $200 per ounce or more. Our current share float is just shy of 150M fully diluted right now. We will need to raise serious money to prove up 3M ounces so we can have multiple drill rigs running. Our share float will probably be around 200M shares by then.
However, I am getting way ahead of the company here. If I compare this to hockey, a buyout is like winning the Stanley cup and we are fighting to just get into the playoffs at this point. We need to play 1 period at a time...or one set of assays at a time.
Sasha said they are still drilling right now but will stop towards the middle of next week and analyze the results with SGS and then come up with a comprehensive drill plan for the spring/summer.
Sasha also said that their phones have been ringing off the hook since they got back from Toronto where they had about a dozen meeting with banks, analysts and investment firms. James West is also supposed to talk about GNH in his next newsletter which could be out as early as this weekend. The results for Champagne may not be out in time for PDAC as the company has chosen to prioritize the results from T1/2 in order to have them out by mid March and have the RE out by end of March.
I also asked him if Agoracom was the chosen vehicle for IR as I see their banner here alot more lately. He said that the deal with Ag is geared towards retail. What they are actively pursuing is an IR for institutional types. When this deal is done, it will be news released.
During our 20 minute conversation at 5:00 on a Friday night, he put me on hold 3 times to answer other calls. Frank was in meeting/phone conferences all day and I did not get to speak to him. Hoping to talk to him next week. It certainly looks like the PR is getting cranked up and that we are getting lots of attention. If we keep delivering positive assays, we should keep this momentum going for a while yet.
Glorieux