just wanted to weigh in with my two cents on the POG. while we have seen huge gains the past few years we still hav'nt seen that "overnight double" which tends to happen right before the crash. historically we could see gold shoot to $3000k oz very quickly, right before it settles back to $1500....

with average gold cash costs at/over $1000 oz. i think the likelihood of gold falling below that level and effectively shutting down the vast majority of production is unlikely (not impossible), but highly unlikely. i can see scenarios where "flight from safety" could exist and drop the POG to as low as 1k oz but with china/india demand forecasts i think this also is unlikely.

any meaningful cost effective production from undersea mining is still years off but imo will eventially drop the POG due to the huge untapped reserves. meanwhile, any one of a hundred scenarios could raise the POG dramatically. personally i'm hoping for a country (any country) to go on a gold standard where the currency is pegged to a countries gold reserve vs. the currency outstanding. the problem with past "gold standards" was the government trying to set the POG.

in the end, industrial uses for gold have been increasing over the years while resources are quickly diminishing. it suprises me that most predictions for gold are extremely positive/negative...perhaps gold is just finding a new trading range?