Gold forecast to hit $1,450 an ounce

The price of gold will rise to a record of $1,450 a troy ounce in the next year, driven by a loss of faith in central banks’ ability to prop up the global economy, according to a closely-watched annual poll of the precious metals industry.

The prediction was made by bankers, producers and analysts attending the London Bullion Market Association conference in Berlin – the biggest gathering of the gold industry. If correct, it would mean an increase of nearly 11 per cent on Tuesday’s record price of $1,307.70 an ounce, triggering big profits for the world’s largest gold miners, such as Barrick Gold, Newmont Mining and AngloGold Ashanti. The LBMA poll has proven an accurate – even conservative – forecast over the past few years even if the presence of miners and bullion investors skews the poll.

The comments by Mr Crisp, who is also head of precious metals at Mitsubishi, the Japanese trading house, summarised a re-soundingly bullish atmosphere at the LBMA conference. More than a quarter of the delegates said that gold prices could hover above $1,500 an ounce in 12 months time. There was even talk of $2,000 an ounce.“It’s very hard to be pessimistic [about the gold price] in the short term – at worst you’re neutral,” Kevin Crisp, chairman of the LBMA, told the Financial Times.

“The degree of uncertainty that is out there at the moment...has justified a move into gold,” said John Reade, senior vice-president at Paulson, the hedge fund that made millions during the financial crisis and is buying bullion.

Most delegates dismissed the view that the gold trade was becoming overcrowded – George Soros has called bullion “the ultimate bubble” – arguing that gold’s audience has widened. Shayne McGuire, manager of the gold investments held by Teacher Retirement System of Texas, one of the largest public pension funds in the US with $95bn under management, said: “We’re at a unique moment in financial history – the world as a whole has realised it doesn’t own enough gold.”

There were, however, a few wary voices warning that gold’s spectacular rally could easily suffer a correction if the global economy recovers. Tom Kendall, precious metals analyst at Credit Suisse, said: “Once we see a sustained rally in the S&P 500, I suspect we won’t be fixated about record gold prices any longer.”

The LBMA delegates forecast silver would be trading at $24 an ounce in 12 months’ time, up 11 per cent from the current 30-year high of $21.65 an ounce. Platinum prices are predicted to rise to $1,857 an ounce, up from the current level of $1,614, and palladium at $702 an ounce, up from $545 currently.

Enjoy,

Inca.