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Message: Re: Market warning
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Aug 25, 2010 03:25AM
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Aug 25, 2010 10:27AM
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Aug 25, 2010 10:38AM
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Aug 25, 2010 10:50AM

Certainly I'm not worried about GNH either - my whole basket of golds is holding up nicely, and this one has as much upside as any. I'm just hoping for a panic to drive the price down to 50 so I can load up the truck like the greedy fool I am.

As for the market, yes, copper did fail its upmove, which is a good downward omen. Conservative bears are calling for S&P 950, aggressive ones are calling for S&P 850 - but that's with only the known knowns factored in. There may be "known unknowns" like commercial real estate, or China, or the PIIGS, or even "unknown unknowns", that spring a leak from the market's increase in downward pressure, compounding things and pushing it all down to 800 or less, probably in one big temporary spike.

I think if the market drop is orderly and conservative, we should have no fear with gold stocks. The Fed's constant reassurance of another trillion thrown at the problem may moderate the downward move, as investors now expect a handout of free candy if we can just hit 950.

Problem comes if the downward move causes foreign difficulties - the Fed can't fix those. Then you get panic and a big de-risk.

October sees the market calm down when it gets clarity about US government policy with the election polls, and then we get a Santa Claus rally. This is all straight out of the historical Presidential Cycle data.

YMMV.

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Aug 25, 2010 11:39AM
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Aug 25, 2010 11:52AM
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Aug 25, 2010 12:20PM
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Aug 25, 2010 12:38PM
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Aug 25, 2010 01:26PM
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