Re: The $30-$40 argument -twilight
in response to
by
posted on
Jul 21, 2010 10:40AM
New Discovery Resulting in a 20KM Mineralized Gold Belt
For all those arguing for 3-digit in-situ valuations.
Again, read over my post. What I said was, basically, that if GNH sells this in the future at $150/oz, that $150 is only worth $30-$40/oz TODAY when you discount it and divide it over the total future share count.
Thanks for your comments regarding my post, but:
1. I wasn´t arguing "3-digit-in-situ-valuations", I was talking about $75 / oz. in-situ as an industry average (see Canaccord Genuity etc.).
2. You don´t discount future ounces and share count to today´s situation (if your analyst friend does, give him a hard time!)
Too many variables ! What is the dilution in 1/2/3 years ? Nobody knows !
How many ounces do we have now / in 1/2/3 years ? Nobody knows !
What is the POG in 1/2/3 years ? Nobody knows !
That´s exactly why the big investment firms are scanning the market continously and come up with spreadsheets where all recent buy-outs and marketcaps are summarized, which build the base for an average price per ounce in the ground TODAY !
No discount and variables needed !
You just have to differentiate where your company is operating (possible country risk), but in general, the AVERAGE figure is quite a good starting point.
Depending on the investment house we are talking about an average price between $ 75 to $ 90 per ounce in-situ TODAY !
No pumping, no bashing, just plain facts !
FANTOMAS