Re: twilight - some good points but...
in response to
by
posted on
Jul 21, 2010 08:08AM
New Discovery Resulting in a 20KM Mineralized Gold Belt
let me challenge some of your statements:
a) But the justification was that the big boys like Goldcorp presently pay good money for significant deposits that can keep them in business ... They need a piece of paper proving a mine's economic model before someone like Goldcorp will offer a serious price.
No, they don´t need economic proof to pay big bucks !
Let me give you an example of a company I was shareholder of until they were taken over by Goldcorp (note the significantly lower grades and NO Pre-feasibility):
Canplats Resources (CPQ.V), a company with a high-tonnage (very) low grade deposit in Mexico:
They were bought by Goldcorp which is running their near-by Penasquito mine in Zacatecas.
The buy-out price for this early exploration play was C$ 238 M.
Canplats had:
3.44 M oz Au M&I @ 0.65 g/t Au
and 555.000 oz Au Inferred @ 0.56 g/t Au
(all with 0.2 g/t cut-off (!) and with some Ag, Zn, Pb credits).
So, that was nearly $ 60 / oz. in-situ, for an early-stage exploration play !
b) Also, when does the deposit get sold? I'd think it won't be before 2013, given where they are right now.
I thought the same with Canplats and... suddenly they were gone, swallowed up by Goldcorp after 2 years of proving up a ressource, which was (potentially) 3-4 times the size at the time of the buy-out.
So, if Tilsley can demonstrate, that this hydraulic fractured deposit has a certain tonnage with similar grades to a depth of 1000m, you can bet your house, that GNH will be a target a lot sooner without any 43-101 or pre-feas.
c) $30-$40/oz is probably within reason, if you assume the final sale value is $100-$150/oz and gold is absolutely not going to go measurably down from here before sale time.
No way, that a near-surface, high-tonnage deposit in mining-friendly Quebec will ONLY catch $30-40/oz. I think my example above (btw Gold was around $ 950 at CPQ buy-out) shows clearly the opposite view. And I have to second cantjustread, that the actual mining industry average is $75 / oz. And Canaccord has just put out a report with an update of $ 90 / oz. in-situ average !
Just some points to ponder about.
FANTOMAS