A Note on Technical Analysis
posted on
Jul 02, 2010 11:39AM
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I'd like to make a point about technical analysis if I may. Firstly, I am a firm believer in it. I have made successful trades only on technical analysis, and have since changed my strategy to technical analysis + story/fundamentals for better gains. I believe it is the recipe for successful trading.
Technical analysis, in its nature, is an attempt to predict future prices through past price trends. But think about what this means for a second. What do these price patterns and trends really mean? They are a series of price actions in which the mindset of the current shareholders changes to a predominantly optimistic or pessimistic view. If one is looking to go long, they look for patterns which predict a mindset of positivity. And if one is looking for technicals to short a stock, they are looking for a mindset of negativity. I believe TA can be boiled down to that; the mindset of the current shareholders based on past price trends.
So ask yourself what happened with todays price trend. How many weak holders do you think sold? How many, stronger, more controlled investors bought? Is this an example of a price trend? So far, absolutely, its called a hammer with a very long tail. When you consider the range of emotions and what current shareholders are thinking, it is one of optimism. Lets look for a gap up and white candle on Monday.
I believe in situations like today, where there was a lot of panic and perhaps manipulation, support levels and the like go out the window. With companies on the Venture, there is always less support anyway. You really do need balls of steel. With the fake large asks that happened a few days ago, and looking over the buy/sell history that Positive Carry posted, one can make an argument for manipulation. Keep your mind on the story if you are going long.
Jordan