$TNX/!PRII Monthly

The trend is clearly down in TNX/!PRII on the monthly chart, with oil orices 'stabilized' while the yield curve steepens. ROC can remain negative for extended periods, as has been required for the duration of the gold bull matket. A 13-month EMA is tested here, and a reversal should be in order, unless the gold bull market means to end.

Unlikely that yields will progress much further should the S&P rout.

The period most like the current one is similar to the new year of 2011.

http://schrts.co/OrctEK

$USB Monthly

I wish to put the torch to claims that central banks have contrived to lower interest rates. The announcement may have been quantitative easing, and may have engaged in buying their own treasuries, but the announcements of QE invariably raised interest rates temporarily. The whole financial sector needs treasurues for the practise of debt defeasment, thus needs the 'expense' of lower rates.

The conclusion you woukd reach is that the jawboning on interest rates is meant to drub bond prices. The bond market is clearly anticipating a sell-off like those during QE.

http://schrts.co/DfbmCb

$Gold Monthly

Adding ROC to the monthly chart lends a bit of much needed perspective on the Gold Monthly chart, that the ROC remains positive and in a position much like in early 2011.(rather than say, 2009)

http://schrts.co/NaMYEI

!PRII:!PRDI Monthly

We didn't see the inflationary ride out that was imagined, nor did we see an oil orice rally of the kind expected. On balance the gold p/silver ratio should improve as the downturn becomes meaningful. But since gold prices and the stock market have ben opposites for some time, gold prices should rise while the stock matket routs.

http://schrts.co/6NpRNF

-F6