via Rick's Picks - December Contract

"$+GCZ15 – December Gold (Last:1070.70)

PostedNovember 19, 2015, 6:04 pmEDT

Yesterday’s rally was the most promising we’ve seen on the hourly chart in weeks. It surpassed no fewer than four prior peaks without taking a breather; moreover, the pullback has been shallow so far. We’ve been short this vehicle with an 1176 basis, but the current stop-loss at 1093.70 should be closely minded, since even moderate strength on Friday could trigger it. If so, it would give us a theoretical gain of $9300 on the position upon exit. If the rally is for real, bulls should be able to move the futures easily past1086.50Thursday night. That’s the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance of a small abc pattern on the hourly chart that projects to1095.50. (A=1068.30 at 9:00 a.m. ET on 11/19).______ UPDATE(November 22, 11:07 p.m.):The futures flunked our test with weak feint to 1087.20 that was followed by $20 dive. Maintain stops at 1093.70 for now, o-c-o with an order to cover the short at 1046.50, two points above a longstanding target."

Rick's longstanding downside target has come into view, although I had presumed that gold prices would recover long before this, it would not violate the Elliot wave count - even at these price levels. He's also calling for a higher dollar, contrary to COT numbers. It's possible to have mix of higher dollar, even though interest rates may decline, lower stocks and higher gold.

The futures market seems very intent on painting the tape in commodities, especially since Copper has tested the $2 level. So it looks like commodities first, before the dollar should be challenged.

In this long-standing brutal correction in gold prices, some guidance would be necessary in these uncharted waters.

http://www.rickackerman.com

-F6