via Bloomberg Business - Swap Spreads

Normally the widening of credit spreads would cause major concerns, but we have instead an inversion of credit spreads.

This is essentially the condition of the market when we should be seeing relief from the stock rally, but central banks are heavily vested in the markets, especially on the auspicious occasion of the anniversary of the 1929 stock market crash.

For instance the BOJ is buying ETFs, the SNB is buying stock on the Nasdaq, the PBOC is selling US treasuries, the ECB is buying mortgage backed securities, there is a flooding of the secondary market in treasury bills, in defence of the zero bound.

"Much attention has focused on more limited balance sheets at dealer-banks in the wake of new regulation, extra sales of U.S. Treasury bills, hefty issuance of corporate bonds, the selling of U.S. government debt by emerging market central banks, and recent hedging activity by investors in mortgage-backed securities."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-05/swap-spreads-have-fallen-and-they-can-t-get-up

Instead what we have is a continued rally in stocks, and a rising US Dollar. Gold bullion is really taking a back seat in what is an increasingly uncomfortable ride for the gold Bulls. Commodities have stayed where they are, despite dire predictions of wholesale crashes.

Gold prices are under a decline as our indicator would have it, though the indicator has abandoned two important technicals, and has been at variance for some weeks. It usually updates after 7pm, or by the next day. It has given us a very reliable indication on direction in the very short term.

Looking back, turning points of note require a prominent double top, which is now entirely possible.

http://schrts.co/nG2izA

-F6