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Message: Re: Charts & Comments - WSJ

Jun 19, 2015 11:21AM

via WSJ - Treasury Bid/Ask Quotes

One indicator that we had lost in January was the gold forwards rate, which had been positive. It was a way of determining when gold was being leased. With the disappearance of a key interest rate, mostly people were left in the dark. You could tell when gold prices were being supported when treasury bill rates were below lease rates.

I would say that lease rates have probably gone negative again during the steepening of the yield curve, leading to a widening of spreads between near futures and the longest dated futures. Gold futures had not seen backwardation like most commodities and has still to enter into backwardation to complete the bull market.

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_GC.Q15_Z20.E&v=dmax&t=l&a=0&w=30

But there's one thing that most people are not contemplating is negative rates on treasury bills in the U.S. We are seeing negative rates on the bid rate of bills going out three months:

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3020-treasury.html#treasuryB

-F6

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