$GVZ Weekly

Something that might give some trepidation to the gold price straight up, mining share prices straight up camp is the low volatility in the gold price. Volatility would have to reach below 12 before a high volatility event can occur, and this is as frustrating for the commercial traders as it is for the bugs. It can take a year for volatility to return.

Gold prices in $CAD are overwhelmingly more than enough for a profitable mining camp in the Laronge Gold Belt. And they happen to be at a long term inflation adjusted average at the same time.

So really, what you would need to see are for interest rates to decline below inflation once again, though everyone and their mother are fixated on interest rate rises. This was hampered somewhat by the oil price decline, and perhaps the firming of the $U.S., but there is one thing you can count on are for interest rates to decline on treasury bills and for policy rates to follow.

The way it happened in Europe was that yields on bills 9 mo. fell first, followed by shorter term bills, and then policy rates. The European Central Bank has to be elated at the decline of the euro, while Swiss central bankers are puzzled while their currency appreciates. Gold prices are very well supported here, the further along the yield curve negative nominal rates progress.

http://scharts.co/1bTFrzI

A somewhat confused picture on negative real rates may yet see some resolution on the Nowandfutures website:

http://www.nowandfutures.com/forecast.html#predict_gold

- F6