$Gold Monthly - 21- Month Cycle

I had expected a 21-month cycle to bear out in the month of March, but I couldn't be sure of the exact date of the decline. To be sure, the decline started in February and continued into March.

I believe the paradigm of the Wave One Extension in Elliot wave terms is still valid, and that we are probably at the completion of the first impulse wave of the last leg of the gold bull market. So I enumerated those terms into the chart.

A tail should form on the bottom of the candlestick. The decline so far has been the same amount in arithmetic terms as the three wave in the first leg of the bull market.

http://scharts.co/1BD6jgj

$Gold Weekly

A flag should appear on the weekly chart on the rebound, denoting a low. This amount should be higher than the November low.

http://scharts.co/1vwVyGL

$IRX Weekly

We are closing Q1 with no decline in treasury bill prices, and have seen 'pops' into negative rates. Settlement for quarterly rollover of the short term money market has to happen for the close of the month, or it will all be rolled over into Q2. The more Indeces decline, the greater the upward pressure on money-market prices.

What pushed European and Japanese markets into negative territory was the anticipation of higher treasury bill prices by money market traders, so the same might occur in the U.S. Part of the reason why rates went negative in Europe in the first place was the collapse of mortgage bonds tied to failures of currencies in former Warsaw pact states, because the currencies collapsed against the Euro.

There was no banking sector after the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe, and they relied on Western European banks tied to the Euro, in order to expand lending. The irony is that they may be forced to chose to adopt the Euro(tied to Germany) or the Ruble(tied to Russia) both of which happened to be the former oppressor states.

The accretion of Crimea may have been the blunder that Putin should not have committed, in light of these facts. But the rise of fascism in the Ukraine is attributed to the U.S. and Britain, who still maintain their imperialistic pretensions. It's surprising that Thea's no mention of Eastern Europe, as if it were still a group of satellite states.

This provides ample opportunity for European banks to resort to the U.S. Dollar, even though the U.S. had been scrutinizing the strength of the Swiss Franc, despite negative rates, and loathe to see the same occur domestically.

The UK? Surprise rate cuts.

http://scharts.co/1BupPwm

$GVZ Weekly

I can still see gold bullion prices becoming a very low volatility asset, though I tend to think that negative rates will spread panic for a time and people will be grabbing at the bullion.

Gold's price rise is not directly causative of a collapse of purchasing power in world reference currencies, nor does it mark a massive increase in inflation, but an increase of its own fungibility and liquidity. Should that occur, that gold is actually worth a lot more than inflation merits, then this would result in stronger currencies and a low volatility gold price.

http://scharts.co/1AB2sR1

GBN.V Weekly

One chart that has been out of sight for a couple of years is the weekly chart. The technicals are showing a rally should occur.

http://scharts.co/1KGAppv

- F6