My computer has packed it in. This will be the last weekly analysis.

via Risk Glossary - Volatility Skew

See if the gold price market dies not more closely resemble a volatility skew, rather than a volatity smile:

http://www.riskglossary.com/link/volatility_skew.htm

via INO.com - Dec 2014/Jun 2019 Spread

My guess is that narrowing spreads between near futures and long dated futures means that the volatility smile or skew had reached its full potential as of last June, where spreads began to narrow. The INO chart only updates with the close of the previous day, after bond market close.

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_GC.Z14_M19.E&t=l&a=0&w=1&v=dmax

$Gold Weekly

If the spot price is below a certain level, then the massive gold derivative cornering the entire financial interest in bullion markets with a truly colossal notional would be out of the money at this level. Very likely bullion bank trading desks have been taking calls from risk managers, since derivative contracts have dickensian beneficial ownership clauses. If the Swiss population were in the slightest bit aware of the gambles banks are taking with their public trust, they would be impatient to have the country indemnified against risk.

My guess is that the price level with low tolerance for any downside risk would be ~$1188/oz. U.S.

A price flag should come up in stockcharts denoting the price low.

http://scharts.co/1vwVyGL

via Bull Market Thinking - Article From Last June

Last June would have been the best candidate for a capitulation, though something happened in the meanwhile on the way to armageddon:

http://bullmarketthinking.com/rick-rule-on-gold-resources-were-now-seeing-capitulation-by-institutional-investors/

via Calculator Soup

Using the results obtained in the last Net Present Value calcuation based on ounces produced, you can come up with an idea of how much gold is in the ground.

The average production over the period of commercial production was 88k. This would be the prepaid amount for the next phase. Full production would be assumed @264k. over 25 years. Interest rate would be the 30-year Bond rate. Costs are already assumed to be 25% of production and are not included. A fair gold price appraisal going forward would be $1300/oz. CAD

http://m.calculatorsoup.com/calculators/financial/net-present-value-calculator.php

-F6