$Gold Weekly

I should really wait until the close to post this chart, but for all intensive purposes, I don't think things will change much in the way of a risk reversal in the bullion markets until the main indeces fail to reach a new high.

What follows is a decline in interest rates, and negative nominal rates for a time in U.S. treasury bills. In Canada, short term rates have come off, but not enough to warrant a policy change. If anything, the Canadian dollar should compare well to the U.S. dollar, but it lost 5% in the last few months, so the Canadian dollar gold price is very supportive of mining development, despite bearish sentiment.

Still waiting to see the crossover in the ADX. What should follow is a moving average crossover.

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/interest-rates/t-bill-yields/?page_moved=1

http://scharts.co/18tFEEK

$USB Weekly

Gold prices and bond prices are trading concomitantly since last year, and if you have your math correct, then your derivative notions should follow the market smoothly. But this does not determine the outcome.

So gold prices and bond prices are rather joined at the hip, regardless of fundamentals that would support gold, since the stock market is the draw and gold blithely thrown in the garbage.

http://scharts.co/18tGQrL

via Gold-Eagle - Gold Stocks And The Great Crash Jan 10, 1997

I had searched for a comparable in market conditions prior to the coming presumed crash and found that reading about the 1973/74 crash has strong comparables with the present.

As luck would have it, there is a small quote about gold stocks during this crash, how they performed. It would seem much more realistic to measure against this comparison than using the depression as an example, because many smaller gold stocks had their share prices fixed at par, much as if their shares were preferred.

It's all the more realistic, because you know the companies that are mentioned during this period, since the data for the time might still be available:

"What Happened During the Next Great Market Crash (1973/1974)?

From the market high in 1973 to its low in 1974 the DJIA and the S&P 500 lost almost half their value - while the previously high-flying technology stocks plummeted more than 60%. Enough to cause heart-failure to the credulous believers of THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT. Even the relatively "safe" utilities were decimated - as they dropped more than 50% from their 1973 high to their nadir in 1974. H-O-W-E-V-E-R, students of financial history took profitable refuge in gold metal stocks. The Gold Mining Index, composed of ASA, Campbell Red Lake and Dome Mining, appreciated more than 260% from its 1973 low (40) to its 1974 high (147). This merits being redundant. During the severe 1973/74 bear market, stocks lost half their value - while gold mining companies almost quadrupled."

http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-stocks-and-great-crash-1929-revisited-0

The Regina Leader-Post, Jan 8, 1975

http://ow.ly/r5wuN