Elliot Wave Count

In reviewing the gold price bull market since 1998, the conclusion that you will reach based on the elliot wave format, is that the gold bull market is in a One Wave Extension.

The first wave took 9 years from start to finish, into the bottom of wave 2. The second wave, or wave three only took 4.5 years to complete, exactly half the time, into the bottom April, 2013.

The next wave propogation, a fifth wave aught to be in proportion, according to the elliot wave format and must follow certain rules.

Expectations that the gold bull market is in a Five Wave Extension are proven wrong by the latest correction.

The fifth wave in a One Wave Extension is presumed the shortest. It aught to be completed in 2 years and 3 months' time, one half the amount of time the 3-wave took, to the bottom of the correction, and the smallest wave.

Where gold prices may wind up is anybody's guess on the correction, because we do not have a five-wave extension blow-off to make a forecast, much as we had in oil into summer 2008, or in silver prices.

Gold prices aught to be chronically firm, based on positive lease rates, and negative nominal rates in 3-month treasuries. Gold in bullion form may eventually be accepted as a 100% trade weighted foreign currency, on a par with world reserve currencies, which would be the equivalent to a devaluation.

I have two good examples for presentation:

The following video suggests that gold prices may advance ~2.53 times over the low in April, after enduring a lengthy, complex 4-wave correction. The example that is provided in the video does not serve well. Since one-wave extensions, and especially the one the gold bull market is in, is not much desired or expected it will not be analyzed as such.

That would give a resulting gold price high of $3333/oz. (.618 X 4.08333333 multiple wave one X 1321 April low which is a smaller wave than wave three, which was a 2.82 multiple of the 681 low)

A massive blow-off is not meant to occur, as you would in a five-wave extension, as happened in oil, or in silver. Silver and Oil prices stabilizing in this time frame demonstrates that shadowstats has been exactly correct in some respects. For the most part, inflation is being absorbed in the bond markets. Thus gold prices aught to stabilize much as oil and silver had, even though there were massive blow-offs in both, after running five-wave extensions.

An expectation of this price level is commensurate with RealTerm's Dax In Gold, looking for 3000 €.

http://youtu.be/lEemGkrofsg?t=3m15s

http://www.thepatternsite.com/EWExtension1.html

-F6