Charts & Comments
posted on
Nov 25, 2012 12:56PM
Saskatchewan's SECRET Gold Mining Development.
via Stockwatch - Friday's Action
It might seem a merely offhand trade that anonymous sells into the last bid, but what actually happened was anonymous, which never buys any shares, sold half of Friday's volume in the last 25 min. of trading.
That means that someone with a strong interest in seeing the decline of GBN.V share prices prevented any upside move. There are no buyers, only traders looking to settle off some of their risk at any given time.
Capricious pricing in the stock, in a market where the 'no down-tick' rule at one time protected against this kind of naked shorting, no buyers, and a management that runs a shell company while withholding all aspects of financial, production and exploration activity, while obviously spending tens of millions at the same time, More than was required to start up the project, you have to expect lower prices, regardless of the fundamentals.
The gold price is up, however since GBN.V is a moose pasture, with celebrated Phd's shovelling through the dung with garden implements looking for gold while they're not taking measurments of poop with an astrolabe, the rise in long dated treasury bond prices will dictate that share prices will remain strongly inversely correlated. (smelling it, tasting it, throwing it once they realize... 'It's POOP!')
Of course, if the regulators summarily signed off on such an atrocious mockery of financial rigour as GBN.V's Q4 report, you would have to expect that they are only protecting greater financial interests.
For instance, Sprott's long-standing equity swap position with TD Securities, which needed to be settled, will probably have been written off by the end of December. So a sign I would be looking for is that GBN.V finally gets listed under Sprott's precious metals holdings, rather than their Canadian equity holdings.
This would require that GBN.V's Q2 fiscal 2013 report with a loss attached can be tabled no later than Dec. 22., to close out the year, and a fifteen-year equity swap ride with monthly payments of ~$100k for Sprott will presumably come to a close.
Shares aught to come very cheap. (or swaps of a swap)
GBN.V Monthly
There is no point to charting the stock, except perhaps as a function of long-dated U.S. Treasury bond prices. The way that equity swaps work, is that you sell the stock without first owning any, and then parry the proceeds against treasury bond futures. The debt of stock sold with no ownership in the stock is called an equity swap.
You would not do the same against gold prices. That's because gold futures are subject to short selling derivatives, re-hypothecation during bank failures, and government actions such as fixing the gold price. You cannot use spot prices in a legal equity swap configuration.
A gold miner would be greatly advantaged by a fixed gold price over and above fixed costs, rather than say, a holder of bullion.
If gold is to become a tier 1 asset, then obviously this means a fixed gold price would be in the cards. By way of irony with the past, the gold price might be fixed in the ~$2000/oz. range, 100X its pre-devaluation price during the depression. Then a controlled currency devaluation by adjusting the gold price higher can occur, rather than a disorderly collapse.
As you can see, GBN.V share prices have been kept in a trading range for an extended period of time, and the RSI is at the lowest ever seen in company history, going back to inception.
supersize:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/11747277@N07/8217835670/sizes/l/in/photostream/
via NRC - Overview Of Trends
I waded through this article finally to establish what it might cost for all expenditures in exploration in Saskatchewan, but came up empty. Suffice it to say the highest costs for drilling and exploration is in Saskatchewan, and I am making a guess when I assume that the company would have spent something like ~$40m. on drilling and exploration unaccounted for in the last two years on 50k - 75k metres, and has been witholding results.
"The most significant reason for major variations in expenditures in work phases in 2008 was the number of projects leaving the off-mine-site exploration work phase for the deposit appraisal work phase, plus some new projects re-entering this phase. Some major spending fluctuations at existing projects were also noted. Significant projects in the deposit appraisal phase in 2008 included the Meliadine West and Hackett River precious-metal projects in Nunavut, Canadian Malarctic in Quebec, Young Davidson in Ontario, and Bingo in Saskatchewan. Two potash projects (Jansen and Legacy) had a significant impact on expenditures in Saskatchewan. Significant base-metal projects included: Izok Lake in Nunavut; Schaft Creek, Copper Mountain, and Galore Creek in British Columbia; and Minago in Manitoba. Furthermore, Nunavut was the site of costly pre-production work at the Mary River iron ore project, and project re-evaluation and infrastucture access work at the Hope Bay gold project."
http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/minerals-metals/business-market/canadian-mineral-exploration/2009/3461
This means that the Federal Government was fully aware of developments in the La Ronge Gold Belt prior to mining, yet still sent in the Department Of Fisheries And Oceans to inspect a fully licensed tailings managment facility.
I bought a pair of reading glasses at the pharmacy which are WAY over-prescription, but let me see details not before seen with great resolution. $10.- CDN.
I don't happen to see a concrete spill-way having been constructed in the meantime, do you?
Bing Maps, Star Lake
'You've been Binged!'
Bird's Eye, spring - summer 2011
What you might have to the west side and immediately south of the Mallard TMF berm is a concrete step spillway to allow fish to enter the lake.
Aerial View, early winter 2011
search around, you can see an extra berm having been construced on the above-ground tailings mangement facility. Also? There is a very large ore stockpile just south of the mill.
-F6