Conclusions
- Long-term U.S. treasury-bond prices may remain rangebound for the foreseeable future, guaranteeing low interest rates, but not guaranteeing a yield on equity swaps held against gold companies. Therefore, the strong inverse correlation of GBN.V shares prices is bound to deteriorate.
- The gold price is likely to advance further, given that interest rates will remain below inflation, but once commensurate with the fundamental, it will be fully valued. The irony is that gold will have obtained ~100X its depression-era valuation in U.S. dollar terms, prior to dollar devaluation.
- Gold equity prices have not appreciated sufficiently against inflation due to the financial crisis, and therefore may also become rangebound. The 20-year moving average of the ratio of Silver against Gold has not improved appreciably(regardless of silver price volatility) in the last 20 years, and is unlikely to advance.
- Thus a major change in the fundamentals of GBN.V stock must occur for any share price advance. So far, the company has placed major limits on available information on the property, under-utilized the mill, both amortized loans and any forseeable costs well into the next year, not provided a mine-plan as the dated PEA is basically a work of useless fiction, and not calculated a reserve in years.
- Drill results haven't moved the share price at all since 2007, five years ago.
The longest oustanding and most glaring error in of all of these is not having a reserve. All of the information available is obviously meant to comply at a minimum with legal standards, not create value. This is the one area that can be improved, since drilling had been on-going for years with only piecemeal information provided to satisfy regulatory requirements.
It will also be the first step towards a bankable feasibility study, since it will be required.
-F6