Monthly Gold Chart

The monthly gold chart suggests that the parabolic move in gold is not quite over just yet, and gives is an indication of where prices will be. A forseeable correction is in the cards, but in the meantime, the price appeards to be reaching an apogee.

The gold price broke out over a long established trend recently, tracking along a new, clearly defined uptrend. The parameter of the uptrend identifies the outlook both for the peak value and the corrective value.

I assume that gold prices will continue to advance on global uncertainty until ~November, when markets undergo a confirmed, drastic correction. The fundamental under the gold price advance is clearly the decline of short term nominal interest rates, in some cases below zero. Margins on the gold forwards contracts are being raised to stave off postive bullion lease rates while short term interest rates are chronically low.

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-F6