Charts & Comments
posted on
Jun 24, 2011 10:42AM
Saskatchewan's SECRET Gold Mining Development.
Contact The Minister
One thing that shareholders should have done the moment that it was announced that Environment Canada is obstructing the permitting of the Mallard tailings impoundment area was to have contacted the Minister.
Shareholders should have taken it upon themselves to formally contact the Minister and POLITELY inquire what steps must be taken. Does the company require a permit, or is the amendment of the sched 2 of the MMER sufficient for the tailings impoundment area? Further, you can suggest that the La Ronge Gold Project should be given license to operate for the longterm, whatever is required, as there is significant potential growth in the project.
Include the page from the Canada Gazette concerning the mallard tailings impoundment area in your email. Include the quote from the company news release regarding Environment Canada.
http://www.ec.gc.ca/default.asp?lang=En&n=B6832638-1
http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/Contact-eng.htm
http://www.gazette.gc.ca/rp-pr/p1/2011/2011-02-19/html/reg2-eng.html
Attempting to phone Ottawa will not result in anything less than the runaround. Time for shareholders to crack that whip.
Recent Ruling By The Supreme Court
http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCATRE64D4UK20100514
GBN.V had already gone through the CEAA process and obtained an amendment to the schedule 2 of the MMER and is on First Nations' land.
Stuck in the mud.
Stockpiling
Instead of working through the numbers the company is giving out, you have to look for what they have glaringly omitted.
The one thing never detailed is just how much ore the company is stockpiling. Since May 2010, they began stockpiling ore at ~3X the processing rate of the mill. So in one year, they have stockpiled almost 2.5 years of reserves at surface, some which has already been processed.
So for every ~125m. of development in the underground, you have 2.5 years of processing by the mill. So the mine life to 1000m. will be approx. 20years. This does not preclude additional developments on the Dickens Lake prospect.
There is also more ore to be mined than expected:
"While the initial mine production plan lacked flexibility at this early stage of development, production improvements such as this, while requiring additional ore development, will increase our overall ore tonnes available to be mined."
http://www.goldenbandresources.com/html/news/press_releases/index.cfm?ReportID=203235
http://www.goldenbandresources.com/includes/gallery/dsp_large_picture.cfm?pictureID=84
Grade Controls
As expected, grade controls are an issue in the La Ronge Gold Belt. Expected grades out of the estimates were set too high. Simple enough. But the resulting grades are robust anyways.
Nothing 'Till September
In light of recent news releases, the impression they are leaving is that nothing will happen until September at the earliest, since permitting is still in question.
Dodd-Frank act
The Dodd-Frank act was enacted to remove price speculation in commodities contracts for smaller interests not taking delivery of any commodity. So it has caused quite a stir when Mr. Bernanke did not commit to QE3 and commodities prices saw a major sell off. These are very important developments in the pricing of gold going forward, as this reflects the tone of the markets.
What the futures chain in gold prices going forward suggests, is that gold prices will achieve backwardation. This is important, since gold prices in backwardation mean that larger traders taking delivery of their gold will then sell it into the spot market to then obtain the lower priced futures contract. This will not occur until prices are substantially higher than the near futures price. The strategy is to motivate gold into the markets and thereby monetize it.
Cash settlements will come out of the COMEX in this process until the gold price is high enough to coax gold out of the vaults. What that price may be, is open to question, but it would be subtly ironic if it was ~$2000/oz. U.S., roughly 100x the price during the depression.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/fc?s=GCM11.CMX
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dodd-frank-claims-niche-form-of-gold-trading-2011-06-22
http://www.wyattresearch.com/article/dodd-frank-act-will-it-outlaw-gold-silver-buying/23402
6 Myths Of A Gold Bubble
http://www.safehaven.com/article/21368/6-myths-of-the-gold-bubble
Gold Production Costs
NB. I would speculate, however that costs per ounce in the La Ronge, without taking into account development which should be separate, will be slightly lower than during the 1990's, as it had been pointed out in the 2009 PEA Operational Cost Summary, owing to robust grades.
An Article That Bears Repeating With The Aid Of A Frying Pan Upside The Head
"If gold miners want to convince investors their stocks are a better investment than bullion, they have one obvious ace in the hole: yield, which you can't get from physical gold.
Every significant gold producer in the world has either introduced or increased its dividend in the past year. It is genuinely the first time in history that these companies, which made no money for decades, have spare cash to burn. Their theory was that paying dividends would suddenly make gold stocks appealing to value and income investors, but experts say it still has not happened to a significant degree."
http://www.financialpost.com/news/gold+disconnect/4855222/story.html
NB. Dividends were expected from gold mines during the depression, why should it not be the same today?
Short term yields -01%, 0
Now you know why you might want to sell gold at the spot price and buy the next month contract, or the futures price at a later settlement date. Arcane, isn't it?
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/1-month-bill-offered-0005-3-month-0000
GBN Monthly Chart
After months of declines, there has to be a very sharp snap-back since the price is far below the 300-day MA on the daily and the 89-week EMA on the weekly chart. Looking back on the monthly chart, how many emotions had been gushed out on the way up and the way down?
For the moment, however a monthly close above 35ยข would be a godsend.
-F6