Charts & Comments
posted on
Mar 05, 2011 10:58AM
Saskatchewan's SECRET Gold Mining Development.
Mill Output
The mill output referred to in the latest news release is probably the ball mill output. The inventory of some 1800oz. is the result of several days of accumulated output. In the news release they referred to this assumed total is a result of seven days of production.
Seven days of production capacity @400tpd yielding 1800oz. accumulated inventory gives you a head grade of ~20g/t.
Now, since the previous total of production in the preceding weeks was 2671oz., that means you could not have had more than 20 days total in production since commissioning, including oz. in inventory. If we use this estimated time of days of production we get a mill head grade of around ~17g/t.
Conclusion: The estimated time of production of the mill and the resulting grades of the Roy Lloyd mine are consistent with known grades out of formerly producing mines in the La Ronge Gold Belt.
http://www.goldenbandresources.com/html/news/press_releases/index.cfm?ReportID=203226
Daily GBN.V Chart
With the final capitulation in the stock @42¢ on high volume, we saw the finale of a lengthy correction in the stock. The sum total of 58 days in correction to the capitulation is right along with the rule of thumb that a correction in the markets usually take 55 days to complete.
The stock closed on the week @46¢, giving us an interesting formula for the correction, that each propagation of the wave was a multiple of .09, which works out to 27¢, 18¢, 13¢ moves, corrected to 9¢ on the close friday. So you have a wave propagation on multiples of 3-2-1 X .09. (or 3-2-~1.4ish)
The wave form analysis does not conform with elliot wave theory, and since the rally to 55¢ was too high and broke the rules, I assumed a failed wave, but this did not prevent an aggressive price intervention, or capitulation on day 58.
The correction to 42¢ brings the total correction very near the .382 level of the total upward move from 20.5¢ to 75¢, which means the stock will spend some time gathering up steam now, much like it did in the previous year and a half.
This does not preclude that a pennant has formed.
supersize: http://www.flickr.com/photos/11747277@N07/5499082417/sizes/l/in/photostream/
Rita Mirwald/Murray Pezim
'Rita Mirwald, an SMDC spokes-person, said the Star Lake mine is dwarfed by the Seabee and Jolu deposits. Seabee has more than one million tons of ore grading at 0.32 ounces of gold per ton, while Jolu has more than 750,000 tons grading at 0.74 ounces per ton. Star Lake has grades of gold in the range of half an ounce per ton, but reserves of only about 230,000 tons of ore which will be mined out in three years.'
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/January2011/04/c8438.html
'Murray Pezim, president of Canadian Premium, said earlier that the Jolu property could support a 500 ton-a-day mine and mill complex costing between $50 million and $70 million. Estimated reserves were announced at 345,000 tons grading at .52 ounces of gold per ton.'
http://www.cbc.ca/news/story/1998/04/22/pezim980422a.html
Tags: Murray Pezim, Rita Mirwald, Jolu, GBN.V, La Ronge Gold Belt
Silver Monthly
The reason why I like silver, is that its nice an' shiny. But the silver whackos will hate me for posting this chart. Silver is working on the end of its blow-off phase. We are in an extended 5-wave formation, which has been working to a climax since the 1990's.
supersize: http://www.flickr.com/photos/11747277@N07/5499764604/sizes/l/in/photostream/
Pending Fundamentals
One of the pending fundamentals that has taken forever to work itself out, is the resolution of the discount rate to below the zero bound. Nobody believes that negative interest rates can exist, while gold leases are chronically in the negative for years at a time, and 5-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities have had negative rates for months on end.
One of the drivers for settlement of sales of vast quantities of GBN.V shares without actually owning any, is the decline of the discount rate.
One more thing, should negative interest rates come into vogue in swaps and repo's, that means no more financings. GBN.V management had better settle up their financing before this window closes.
One of the reasons why exploration in the La Ronge Gold Belt was shut down during the depression era was Canadian government regulations clamping down on mining speculation and development. But probably the true reason why is that the stock market crash of 1938 saw the end of speculation in all but the healthiest of players. At the time, rates went negative in December of 1938, carrying over into 1939, which finally shut down all sorts of speculation.
supersize: http://www.flickr.com/photos/11747277@N07/5499789858/sizes/l/in/photostream/
Conclusion: GBN.V management had better close the financing pronto in the event that negative rates come into vogue in Mid-March. Pretty much anything speculative will get wiped out should this occur, investors should be focussing on gold producers almost exclusively.
-F6