Weekly Analogous Gold Chart

I removed the weekly count from the analogous gold chart, because it was becoming absurd to attempt to draw an analogy using the method of comparing weekly moves.

However, the simplest and most direct analogy may provide the indication that a higher gold price is imminent, in the form of rounded tops preceding a major rally. The 13-week EMA seems an important support.

The downside risk to the bullion price is probably ~$1300/oz. U.S. It may be a factor should there be a market crash. The extreme downside risk here is the 89-week EMA. GBN.V management favours ~$825/oz U.S. Its very highly likely that ~$1265/oz. U.S. will serve as a low point going forward, but not an average price.

Conclusion: The price used by GBN.V to calculate their NPV in the MD&A is too conservative by far. I am assuming this amount refers to 'all in cost.'

supersize: http://www.flickr.com/photos/11747277@N07/5379532057/sizes/l/in/photostream/

stockcharts.com

GBN.V Weekly Chart

The downside risk for GBN.V shares has to be the very same as the possibility that the gold price may drop to ~$1300/oz. U.S. The 34-week EMA is at the crossroads of a number of technical lines and represents a major backtest of the breakout, so its not completely out of the question. The technicals on each of the daily/weekly/monthly charts are all negative, so its time to wait out the correction:

supersize: http://www.flickr.com/photos/11747277@N07/5379559309/sizes/l/in/photostream/

stockcharts.com

National Post Story On Rocky Arsenault

It would be all that GBN.V needs is a fatality at the worksite to throw a wrench in the works. In some ways, the media is making out GBN.V as a laughing stock by focussing on the soup ladle:

National Post

compare:

The Province

BNN.CA

Catherine Gignac mentions Claude Resources, and also calls an average gold price:

http://watch.bnn.ca/friday#clip402654

Traders Wrist-Slapped

"The men admitted they routinely placed orders with National Bank’s retail trading desk in Montreal without identifying the client account or keeping required records of audit trail information about the trades. No client losses resulted from the activity, but IIROC said the trading left National Bank Financial exposed to credit risk."

Globe

-F6