Re: Charts & Comments - List Of Comparables
in response to
by
posted on
Jan 01, 2011 01:07PM
Saskatchewan's SECRET Gold Mining Development.
List Of Comparables
The following list of comparables provides a geological and historical context which should not be ignored. Many of the mines started during the depression era of the 1930's were successful because they had direct leverage to the decline in costs vs. a fixed gold price.
The narrow-vein mine with refractory ores that is so disliked by institutional advisors ruled the roost. These mines were relatively small in size, but provided exposure to the gold price and paid robust dividends for years. Some were even in operation until year 2000.
Something not formally recognized is that with the end of the depression, profitable Gold mines climbed the equity ladder out of the mire first from 1949 onwards. They provided value because they paid a dividend, but also once the debt deflation had passed, then they provided leverage to rising markets.
The bull market in gold mining companies peaked in 1997 after the gold price had peaked in 1980. We are very much in a trough for gold mining companies, if you divide the share price by the bullion price and have been for years.
So if the gold price should peak in 2015, for example, there is still a coming bull market in miners post bubble. So the logical strategy for providing value for shareholders is not necessarily through gaming the stock market, but providing a robust dividend payout, heading into the trough of the present-day inflationary recession.
The one thing that sets GBN.V apart from all of these mines, is that we start at surface.
Claude Resources CRJ.TO
Claude Resources provides the closest comparable in that their Seabee mine grades ~7g/t, which is half the grade of the high grade stockpile of GBN.V Should the Roy Lloyd mine be approximately the same size as Seabee, but double the grade, then down to 1000m. you have 1.6m oz since Seabee has already produced 800k. oz. since 1991.
http://www.clauderesources.com/mining/index.html
Longitudinal section of the Seabee mine
Pickle Crow Lake Mine
This is a screen capture of the pickle crow lake mine, taken from one of PCgold's presentations. The history of the mine is very interesting, since it operated for some 30 years providing a dividend. One thing that is missing in the GBN.V growth profile is the addition of mining shafts, which are inevitably part of the development process.
Pickle Crow Lake mine did not grow production at all after the depression, which is probably its downfall as costs rose against a fixed gold price. It had only one mining scenario and no room for growth except for bulking up the mill. The forward projection after the bull market in gold would be for a decline in gold prices against rising costs, so a cogent growth plan should be envisioned. I presume the neglected GBN.V Mill Zone will provide ample space for this growth, as there are no shafts in place. GBN.V has a growth profile in that it has at least five areas with which to mine.
The Pickle Crow Lake mine bears a very strong similarity to the Roy Lloyd mine.
http://www.pcgold.ca/en/History_28.html
Richmont Mining Beaufor Mine
The Beaufor mine presents strong similarities with the RKN deposit, mostly due to the nature of the geology. The Beaufor mine technical report will reveal that in the course of underground exploration, miners discovered low grade very wide quartz veins from 5m width to 30m. width very much like in the RKN deposit. This puts RKN into the Golden Heart domain, as you would develop Golden Heart, and use RKN as an adjunct deposit. But also this would leave you to question the size of the sum total of Golden Hear + RKN as a single mining prospect.
Richmont mines would seem to make an awfully good investment in the gold space because of its small float and diverse mining scenario, but their share price has literally not moved for decades(unless you traded it advantageously). The high was in - you guessed it - 1997.
What would be the point of investing in a company that rehabilitates depression era mines, and cannot provide a dividend to its shareholders? The corporate vision that obtusely declares: "Building The Next Generation Of Mines" in a politically corrupt province rehabilitating depression era mines seem a huge stretch of the imagination, unless they can actually buy someone else out. Poor grade controls, no prospect for growth, expecting to buy someone else out, wow these guys are têteux!
http://www.richmont-mines.com/op_operations_beaufor
Northern Star Mining's Malarctic-Midway Project
The Malarctic-Midway project is very similar to the Komis deposit. In fact, Golden Rule assessed this very project and abandoned it in favour of Komis. Golden Rule must have had their minds blown when the gold price declined below cost and shut their mine down. Now we have a real comparison with real history and real grades with which to assess the Komis deposit with Malarctic Midway.
http://www.nsmgold.com/midway.html
Quotable Quotes:
"Jeff: Very good. A lot of investors that follow the Explorer’s League want to know what Ron Netolitzky is going to do next.
Ron: Well, Ron’s got a few projects that have been around almost as long as Brett – some of them maybe a little longer. The other project I’m now fully focused on and spending a lot more time with is Golden Band. It’s a different style of story, but it’s a story where we think it should be in production this year. We have one last little piece left to do, which is complete a small portion of debt financing and I think that is going reasonably well. I anticipate having that closed shortly, and we’ve got all the permits in place. I’ve got the core people in place, we have contractors in place, and I think we will be in production on a small basis by the fourth quarter. It’s a Northern Saskatchewan gold play that I’ve been working on for a long time. Jeff: I know it’s kind of small, but do you have any sense for the production numbers yet? Ron: Yes. The initial production target is from just one small deposit, because I’m tired of getting diluted by raising money, so we’re trying to get it into a cash flow position. We’re basically planning to start off with about 45,000 ounces production per year. We’re very comfortable with what we’ve already identified in the belt; we should be able to ramp that up to 70,000 ounces within a couple of years and maybe 100,000 ounces. I think we can support a long mine life at about 100,000 ounces with the resources we have – but we have a lot more work to do on some of these resources. We’re kind of going at it a little backwards, treating this belt like you used to treat traditional gold belts in the ‘30s. A lot of the deposits we have are narrow high-grade vein systems and they’re steeply dipping. It’s very hard to get 5 or 6 years reserve or resource ahead of you on any one of these deposits, but if you look at those kind of deposits in the Precambrian Shield a lot of them last up to 50 years plus – but they quite often don’t have more than 2 or 3 years of resources ahead of them. So that’s the way we’re starting it. We’re saying "Okay, we’re going to keep chasing this… we have numerous exploration targets in the belt and I want to explore them without any further dilution to the shareholders, because I’m a large one and I’m getting tired of being diluted!” The other route and why I want to continue exploring in Saskatchewan on this belt is it’s got a lot of gold in it. We have continually found more small deposits. Now if you look at statistics of some of these mineral deposit belts, it says that you’ve got a whole bunch of small deposits, and you’ve got less intermediate deposits, and then you have a few large deposits. Well, so far we’ve found all the small ones. On a normal statistical basis, there should be a bigger one around there somewhere, but we haven’t found it, and after working there since the late 70s, there’s a possibility that hidden in that pile of small deposits there’s going to be a big one that we just haven’t found yet.
I think what a lot of the big companies keep forgetting or keep missing is they always have a target of 2 or even 5 million ounce deposits. Well, sometimes you can recognize a deposit has that potential but a lot of the time you’ve got to go through a lot of smaller targets before one of them shows up to be that big, and you know that’s the part where you depend on luck or the geologist’s skills to find that."
source: Jutia Group
-F6