Welcome To The Gold Reserve HUB On AGORACOM

Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section

Free
Message: Two cents worth.

Two cents worth.

posted on Feb 21, 2009 08:55AM

It is a weekend so a long winded post of prognostication:

I whole heartedly agrree that for things to improve in an ideal manner mining wise, is for a change of government in Venezuela towards a more democratic type. While some might call it 'democratic' now, I do not. I was born under a communist flag and recognize the propaganda and resulting symptoms.

But my question is, What are the prospects under the current situation of Chavez still in power.

He just obtained an OK to try to be elected for a few more years, what is the logic in that? I think that he is affraid to face the people outright so he is nickel and diming his way by doing this trial balloon as to what his chances might be. In a normal system one should have just called an election, period.

The oil revenues have fallen and he has gotten used to those big cash grabs comming in so the reduction in revenues must be putting large holes in his budget. With less cash at hand he has limited his grandstanding on the continent and I am assuming the citizens are feeling the pinch of the grinch.
Thus the trial balloon as to where he stands, he does not want to risk being defeated.

Be it Gold Reserve, Crystallex or any PM mining company, they all provide too little revenue potential to make the difference that Venezuela needs. However they should provide sufficient political bragging points in an election should he allow those projects to proceed.

There are those that will argue that granting permits to outsiders to 'Exploit' their resource is not progress, but the contrary argument that is more valid is that the resource sitting in the ground does nothing and it is needed to provide jobs in times of recession. Will they ever recognize that?

Anyways I have stated so far what is obvious to me.

The most probable change is that Chavez is waiting for the Cristinas property to be settled through the courts. He probably does not want to add more problems onto himself by forcing the issue through nationalization, these potential mines are not important enough. Oil was important enough for him because it is the life blood of the economy and the result is that most foreign investment went away. So it has been a life's lesson to him. He seems to be waiting not only for the court decisions but perhaps for Crystallex to fold. Crystallex shareholders are not doing themselves any favours by demanding compensation from the company and could force the company into bankruptcy. That serves Chavez more than them.

Venrus seems to have been created for the purpose to step in should Cristinas become available without encumberances. Buy out of Gold Reserve would have added another possible avenue for a solution. With Rusoro obtaining Brisas they could have offered a few crumbs to Crystallex to part with their contract and Venrus would be The Mining Co. in Venezuela. That is where the 'Favoured' status for Rusoro came from. Chavez is not the fool that some claim on another forum, he is an opportunist unwilling (now unable) to pay for development.
With Rusoro's failure to aquire Gold Reserve, I am betting that the Favoured label is hollow.

What remains?
Crystallex will fold and Chavez will grant Cristinas to Venrus where Rusoro will be trying to find financing to develop a mine. However that financing is unlikely to be found unless someone like Agapov will be the saviour.
Could it be that Rusoro will find some cash to buy Crystallex's rusty equipment?

So in a few months once most of the dust has settled they may come again to Gold Reserve with a third offer. By 'they' I mean more Venrus, representing Venezuela and Rusoro, than Rusoro by itself.
How did I do?

Share
New Message
Please login to post a reply