See Adanac hub for updated scoping study for comparison to Sisson Brook.

Smaller than I thought at 156M tonnes. Mine life shorter at 21 years although milling rate is slightly higher at 23,000 tonnes per day. Capital cost $640M with $55M contingency - almost double that of Sisson Brook. Operating cost at $7.60/lb Mo (total mining costs at $13.08/tonne to start and declining to $8.11 after 5 years) - slightly higher than for Sisson.

IRR of 18.9% and NPV of $295M at 8% discount rate over 21 years - much lower than Sisson Brook. Payback period 3.2 years - good but not as good as Geodex.

Golder & Associates have recommended that the project keep going.

They are using a 0.04% Mo cutoff. Endako have lowered their's to 0.03% so it would be interesting to find out how much ore, value and mine life would be added to Adanac if this cut-off was used.

There accuracy in estimates is at +/- 15%. Geodex's (Wardrop's) report is +/- 35% so Geodex has a ways to go to get the confidence level up.

Their Mo price outlook has Mo in 2008 at $34 decling steadily to $15 by 2015 and remaining at $14.75 after that. Prices during Geodex's 2.7 year pay back period would be $28 first year, $23 second year and $21.75 third year. Geodex's average for that period is similar at $25.30.

On these calculations Sisson Brook would appear to be twice as valuable as Adanac's Ruby Creek. Given this value and that Adanac's SP is presently $1.20 and that they are 18 months ahead of Geodex then Geodex's SP should be valued at about $2.40 by early 2009. This, of course does not include any further increases in Sisson's grade or tonnage in the meantime.

It will be interesting to follow Adanac's share price over the next year in order to anticipate Geodex's future SP.